The European Commission is forecasting that imports of sheepmeat into the EU could rise by 8% in 2023, as a result of more competitive UK and Australian shipments.

EU imports of sheepmeat increased by almost 23% in 2022, coming from New Zealand, the UK and Australia.

“More imports from New Zealand are expected also in 2023, mostly thanks to a lower Chinese demand and less logistical hurdles,” the Commission said in its short-term outlook.

The Commission said that the additional 8% of imports this year “are expected to put some pressure on high EU prices”.

Exports

EU sheepmeat exports decreased by 6% in 2022. Furthermore, a shortage in domestic supply and relative high prices could push exports further down by 1% in 2023.

EU exports of live animals increased by 1.2% in 2022, despite a difficult first half of the year and high domestic prices. Most main destinations recorded decreases, with the exception of Jordan and Israel.

The Commission said that the increase of exports to these two destinations alone compensated largely for the declines in most other destinations.

Romania is expected to further redirect a part of its live animals to Greece and Bulgaria due to the solid prices instead of exporting them to non-EU countries.

“Overall, EU exports of live animals are set to decline by 3.5% in 2023 due to high domestic prices and the continuing difficult transport situation through the Black Sea,” it said.

The Commission expects sheepmeat production to fall by 1.2% in 2023.