It took until virtually the last minute, but on Christmas Eve the UK and EU finally agreed on a trade deal.

Despite the bluster from the UK government that it was willing to walk away and trade under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules (an “Australia-type” arrangement), it was always likely that enough compromise be found and “fudge” created to conclude a deal.

For farmers in NI, unlike their counterparts in the Republic of Ireland, the trade deal changes very little. The only thing that really matters here is the NI Protocol under the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, signed in late 2019.

Deal

Last week’s deal means we will never know what impact reciprocal WTO tariffs would have had on domestic prices. Perhaps in the short term there would have been significant rises in commodity markets, although if faced with food price inflation, the British government would surely have acted to keep prices under control by opening borders to imports. It would probably have been a short-term gain.

And for those who talk up how NI “has the best of both worlds” in the form of the NI Protocol, that might have been true in a no deal, given that NI was in the unique position of unfettered access to both the market in Britain and the EU. But with a trade deal done, that opportunity has lessened.

Instead, we are left with the reality of the protocol, which means significantly more bureaucracy for local businesses when moving goods from Britain to NI.

Standards

Looking to the longer term, farm lobby bodies cannot let up on the issue of food import standards. The closer Britain remains aligned to EU rules, the easier it will be for trade across the Irish Sea. However, if Britain diverges by allowing in cheap food, it is inevitable that the EU will insist on even more robust checks on entry to NI.

Of course, cheap food imports to the UK will also be bad for all farmers across these islands, so keeping standards high is a must on so many levels.

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