Historically, both the Russian and French Revolution were caused by starvation; every government knows that if you cannot feed the population, you cannot control the population.

The current British Government post-Brexit is expecting to feed the nation from food surpluses from around the world, while it moves agricultural support into environmental payments.

They are going to get an enormous shock when they realise that the current drought is worldwide and there will be no surpluses.

Land values

Speaking to a friend at the Royal Welsh last week, he is very concerned about the number of cattle purchased using hire purchase from finance companies - this route is used when banks and the AMC feel that the farm business is no longer financially viable.

These are at rates charged from 12% to 20% and when the financial structure of the business makes repayment difficult, the finance companies are happy to extend the loan on cattle that are long since gone.

The phrase ‘to hell on a hand-cart’ comes to mind. My friend knows of three farms that have gone into liquidation already because of this, and the banks are fearful that there are more to come.

If this creates a situation where an excess of farm land comes on the market, land will drop in value and banks will feel that farmers already heavily borrowed will have their loans tied to diminishing capital.

At home

Despite some heavy thunder storms, grass growth is nil and, apart from a month of grass in the spring, the young stock have been fed on hay all summer due to grass shortage.

The only plus side to this is that the in-calf heifers will not calve in with too much condition.

Milk yields are holding up, but at a cost that is only going to increase, and the milk price is failing to rise as fast as expected and needed.

One suspects the milk buyers are sitting on their hands and building up a financial war chest for when they have to pay an incredibly high price for spot milk to fulfil their contracts.

On the political front

I fear the current weakened political state and the external wranglings over Brexit at the moment is providing the breeding ground for a new centre party to be formed, comprised of the Conservative left wing, socialist right wing and Lib Dems.

These people would only achieve their own political aggrandisement and will weaken the political state.

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