The world is in a two- to three-year “commodity super cycle”, according to Dan Basse of AgResource Company in Chicago, who spoke at the R&H Hall conference this week.

The commodities expert said he does not see a change in world fertiliser prices coming any time soon and expects current prices to hold beyond the springtime as energy markets are likely to keep rising.


Basse compared the huge prices to those of 2008 and drew a connection between high corn, gas and fertiliser prices.

He fears a shortage of supply in the EU and the US, but did note that corn acreage may reduce in South America and the US.

He said that corn is a fertiliser-hungry crop and a transfer to crops like barley or oilseed rape would see fertiliser needs reduce.

Basse also noted that the organic farming area in the US is at about 4% and he does not expect to see this rise as he explained the premium for organics is coming down.