As Estonia handed over the presidency of the EU to Bulgaria at the new year, one of its final announcements was to keep the Commission’s proposals on meeting the Paris climate commitment of a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030. Sectors outside the emissions trading system (ETS), which includes agriculture, buildings and transport are committed to achieving a 30% reduction in GHG from 2005 levels by 2030.

The proposal is to calculate the 2030 reduction target starting point for member states from an average of emissions between 2016 and 2018. This would greatly benefit Ireland as according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) April 2017 report, Ireland is projected to fall far short of its 20% reduction between 2005 and 2020 and just achieve a reduction of between 4% and 6%. It also proposes that forestry is counted as a contributor in achieving the reduction. In the case of Ireland, 5.6% of Ireland’s 30% target can be achieved by forestry with up to a further 4% allowable from transfer from heavy industry.

The presidency and European Parliament reached a provisional agreement just before Christmas on how to proceed in the non-ETS sector which requires member state endorsement. This is the culmination of joint discussions between the Commission, Parliament and the Council through the Estonian presidency in the latter part of 2017 and represents a good outcome for Ireland compared with what was suggested by the Parliament earlier in the year.

It was welcomed by IFA environment chair, Thomas Cooney who said it will allow carbon sequestrated in soils and forestry to be taken into account for the first time.

Importance for Ireland

With Ireland scheduled to dramatically miss the 2020 target, it is essential that a 2030 target is realistic and achievable. In 2007, some would suggest Ireland was over ambitious in aiming for a 20% reduction and it is not just agriculture that is the challenge despite the negative association made between farming and GHGs.

Since 1990, emissions from agriculture have actually fallen by 3.5% at a time when transport emissions increased by a massive 138%, with road transport higher again at 145%, according to the EPA.

Within all sectors, there is variance over particular periods. For example, outputs from agriculture declined from 2002 to 2012 with a decrease in the use of fertiliser and decline in livestock herd. They have been increasing since 2012, driven by dairy herd expansion and are projected to continue an upward trend with the delivery of Food Wise 2025. On transport the recession of 2007 to 2012 saw a reduction of 25% in the sector though recent recovery in the economy means that by 2016, emissions were just under 15% of 2007 levels. Improved efficiency in vehicles helps to offset the increase in the number of motor vehicles.

Where farmers fit in

The reality is that technology can drive reduction in GHG emissions across all sectors but some present more challenges than others. Motor vehicles can achieve further progress with the introduction of non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

Similarly, the proliferation of wind farms highlights that however unsightly, oil, peat and coal can be substituted. Residential property can be further insulated and even if oil tanks cannot be completely replaced by solar panels they can lead to a reduction in the consumption of fossil fuel for domestic heating.

That leaves farming. While emissions today are 3.5% below 1990 levels, they are predicted to increase by 5% between 2015 and 2020 in the EPA’s GHG projections from 2016 to 2035, reflecting in particular the growth in the dairy sector following the end of milk quotas in 2015. Looking further ahead to the 2020-2035 period, the report suggests a decline in emissions of 2.4%, driven by a greater reduction in beef herd than increase in dairy herd plus a decrease in use of nitrogen fertiliser.

These figures are based on Teagasc’s FAPRI-Ireland model.

The role of CAP and forestry

In the Communication on CAP 2020, published by the European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development Phil Hogan at the end of November, the terms ‘‘environment’’ and ‘‘sustainability’’ are dominant. The next CAP will have a strong environmental element with a basic standard required before being eligible for securing a BPS.

While technology can lead to large reductions in GHG emissions in other sectors of the economy, there are more limited possibilities with ruminant livestock, particularly at a time of expansion. That does not absolve the sector absolutely, as there will be an ongoing demand to reduce GHG output in terms of unit of production.

Commissioner Hogan told the Food Wise 2025 conference in Croke Park last month that Ireland had to “wake up, and fast, to the reality that we are part of a European Union that has assumed the role of global leader in the climate challenge”. He also said that “Ireland needs to reboot its afforestation policies and start making real headway”.

With the possibility of being able to offset 5.6% of Ireland’s emissions target for 2030 from agriculture still on the table, forestry will be an essential partner for Irish agriculture over the next decade and beyond.