The Oxford Farming Conference is the set piece occasion at the start of each year when the spotlight turns on the way ahead in agriculture. Farmers in Scotland like in the rest of the UK were looking to the DEFRA Minister Michael Gove for signals on how, with Brexit just over a year away, farming would be supported in future.

Commitment has already been given for no change to support payments for the duration of this Parliament which is scheduled to last until 2022 though without the Government having a majority, there is always a risk that it could fall ahead of that date. At Oxford while the minister suggested CAP payments may end with the EU budget cycle in 2020, there would be no change in the system ahead of 2024. That gives some degree of certainty for farmers on what will arrive by way of a BPS payment over the next six years. However he also made clear that the current model isn’t what the Government envisages for the longer term.

After 2024, it seems likely that area based payments, as has been the CAP model since 2005, will not be UK policy. It is a persuasive argument that is offered against this system of payment that substantial six figure payments are finding their way to Middle Eastern based landowners in the UK or indeed the various Royal estates for doing nothing beyond keeping the land in good condition suitable for farming.

Future support

In every statement Minister Gove has made on future support for agriculture, the environment has been central. However at Oxford, he went on to include reference to the value of agriculture in the rural economy as well. His line that “we can and should invest in both technology and infrastructure” and “we can direct public money to the public good of scientific innovation, technology transfer and crucially super-fast broadband” gives an indication of the twin track approach to rural affairs themMinister would like to adopt in the longer term post Brexit.

We can deduce that there will be support to create or preserve traditional landscapes, probably targeted to the less productive upland areas, which could be comparable to some of the measures that are available in Pillar II of the current CAP.

There is no indication from his pronouncements, including at Oxford, that there will be a payment system for the traditional high productive farm land, in fact the inference is with payments for landowners being wrong, the inclination is very much against this.

The clue on how support may be provided for farming in the high productive sectors is in the reference to “scientific innovation, technology transfer and crucially super-fast broadband.” There is a long held UK government view, articulated in prolonged opposition to the CAP when the UK was part of the EU that British farming was capable of holding its own without the traditional support systems. A focus on and support for science and innovation would fit comfortably within this ethos and in theory propel British agriculture to the leading edge of global efficiency.

Of course to truly achieve this would mean embracing science in the way that is currently practised in the USA in using hormones and antibiotics to maximise output.

He appeared to draw a line at this, suggesting that there would be no diminution of standards once the UK left the EU. If the UK aligns with the EU as opposed to the US for productions standards post Brexit then it will forsake the full use of science and technology.

British policy

For now Scottish farmers can take some comfort in that there will be a payment up until 2024 but after that, only the broad brush strokes of a British policy have been outlined so far. For the EU 27, the CAP communication published before Christmas had signalled that the environment will be front and centre of EU policy post 2020 with a huge element of budget uncertainty as a result of Brexit and an expectation for the EU to do more on defence and migration. Uncertainty in the future of farm support isn’t confined to the UK, it will equally apply to farmers in the EU.