The Brexit plan drawn up at Chequers earlier this month perhaps suggests that the British government has been listening to some of the concerns of the agri food industry around future trade.

Most farming and food industry leaders have called on the UK to be in a customs union with the EU after Brexit, as a means of ensuring frictionless trade continues both in Ireland and into markets in the rest of the EU.

The Chequers white paper reflects that position, suggesting that the UK and EU form a new, facilitated customs agreement covering goods (including agri food). It would mean that trade in goods could continue across EU borders, with both sides agreeing not to impose any tariffs or quotas. Crucially, while the UK would set its own tariff rates for non-EU countries, it would follow EU rules, so any goods imported into the UK after Brexit would be to equivalent standards.

That is an important point, as it would potentially limit the ability of the UK to bring in cheap food from elsewhere.

But the Chequers plan has not been to the liking of the hard-line Brexiteers, who want to be free to do trade deals around the world. The obvious conclusion to draw is that these same Brexiteers want to use agri food as a bargaining chip in future trade negotiations with the likes of Brazil, Australia and the US – it is the nightmare scenario for NI agriculture.

Earlier this week, Prime Minister May caved in to a number of amendments put forward by Brexiteers, including one that would require the EU to collect tariffs on its behalf (for goods that land at EU ports, but destined for the UK). It is hard to see the EU27 ever agreeing to that, leading some to suggest that the Chequers plan is dead in the water.

Either way, the prospect of an extremely damaging no-deal Brexit looks more likely now.