This is the time of year when prices can sometimes trend upwards in response to active demand. Not sure if it is likely this year though, given that physical prices have held much higher than futures for the past number of months.

International grain prices recovered slightly over the past week, partly in response to increasing concerns for the 2018 wheat crop. Futures prices generally improved, more so in the US than in Europe, but MATIF is up slightly too.

Last week, I reported ongoing difficulties with lack of snow cover in regions of the world where low winter temperatures can kill winter cereals that are not protected by adequate snow cover for insulation. A recent report from AHDB states that air temperatures in Ukraine are currently running abnormally high.

With temperatures 5°C to 9°C above normal, some of the snow that was present in December has already melted. While melted snow plus recent rain have helped replenished soil moisture levels for 2018, there are now fears that waterlogging could cause serious problems.

Another significant drop in temperature could result in the waterlogged soil freezing over, and lead to an ice crust forming, frost heave and significant damage to winter-sown crops. And plants may be far more susceptible to frost kill where they have been actively growing recently.

Native prices remain broadly similar to previous weeks, with nearby wheat and barley still around €175 and €173/t respectively. Imported maize appears to be flat out to mid-year at €173/t. Suggested prices for May are now only about €1/t over spot prices.

New-season prices remain lower than spot and it is assumed that the gap in wheat and barley prices will increase.