Futures prices have moved upwards in the past week on the back of stronger export demand from the US and the EU. This has triggered covering by speculators who added to the upward momentum. However, physical prices have only moved up slightly as a consequence, but neither did they follow futures prices down all the way in recent weeks.

Last week’s USDA report provided mixed sentiments to the market. End-of-season stocks were forecasted to be back a little for both wheat and maize, but the main response was driven by the increased demand estimates for both major cereals. This has set a new record for maize use and took wheat further into record use territory.

Currency continues to be a factor also. The most recent HGCA report indicates that wheat and canola harvesting is being delayed in Canada and this is providing another driver. Closer to home, dry conditions are slowing planting progress in parts of western Europe.

Spot prices remain broadly similar, with wheat around €162 and barley at €150/t. Logistics are key to price. Spot is now technically November also, but March/May price is around €165 to €167 for wheat and €154 to €157/t for barley.

Oilseed rape prices have moved much more in recent days. MATIF rapeseed November futures closed at €391.50/t on Monday night, from around €360/t in late July. Current spot rape price is around €395 to €400/t, with November 2017 at around €15/t less.