Scotland doesn’t currently have a major interest in export markets, with the exception of sheepmeat. On pigmeat, Scotland consumes as much pigmeat as it produces, though there is trade in parts of the carcase and offal that are not favoured by Scottish consumers. On beef, the main market is the rest of the UK, followed by the domestic markets, with exports accounting for only a small percentage of trade.

With Brexit just over a year away, the UK, including Scotland, could be opened up to meat supplies from beyond the EU, particularly if the UK chooses to open the market on a low-tariff basis, as some advocates of Brexit recommend.

Any displacement of beef would be effectively at the expense of Ireland, which accounts of over 70% of EU beef imports ,with the Netherlands and Poland accounting for much of the remainder. In the last issue, we considered how New Zealand has repositioned its lamb export business, reducing dependence on EU and UK markets. Beef and pigmeat international trade never had the same focus on the EU as a market destination, though the EU remains both an importer and exporter of beef and pigmeat.

EU trade flows

EU beef imports are running behind the previous two years for the first nine months of 2017 (Table 1). Brazil continues to be the main supplier, with 81,000 tonnes sold to the EU up to the end of September. This is 26,000t less than the previous year, with the disruption caused by operation Weak Flesh in March reducing sales.

The other major South American exporters are currently ahead of the same period in 2016 with sales to the EU. Uruguay is up 5,000t to 42,000t, while Argentina has grown its exports to the EU by 3,000t to 35,000t in the first nine months of 2017.

EU exports have also grown between January and October, with the main increases recorded in sales to Turkey, Hong Kong and the Philippines (Table 2). Sales to Hong Kong are up 60% to 73,000t of which 22,000t has came from Ireland. This is a huge jump from the 16,000t Ireland exported to Hong Kong in total for 2016.

The Philippines has been a growth market for the EU, growing by 85% to 34,000t for the first 10 months of 2017. Again, Ireland has also shown growth in sales to the Philippines with over 15,000t exported in the first 10 months, compared with 16,000t in total for all of 2016.

Global beef trade: the major players

Tables 3, 4, 5 and 6 show the major players in the global beef trade. Australia and the South American countries are major exporters of beef, with China, USA and Japan the big global buyers. The growth in the Chinese market continued in 2017 with Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay all showing a large growth in business. Australia’s year-on-year growth was more modest at 7%, but this is partially explained by restricted supplies, as Australia continues herd building after the drought.

International pigmeat

When the Russian trade embargo began in 2014, a major market for pigmeat was lost, but growth in demand from China effectively replaced it over the coming years. China now dwarfs all other markets for EU pigmeat exports (Table 7).

According to the most recent FAO outlook report, pigmeat output is forecast to rise by 1% to nearly 117m tonnes in 2017, with China, the US, Russia, the Philippines, Canada, Vietnam, Mexico and South Korea all likely to show an increase. A predicted 1% increase in China’s production will mean they will produce 53m tonnes, while the US is forecast to increase production by just under 4%, to 11m tonnes. EU production is forecast to remain at just over 23m tonnes for 2017.