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Wheat
Despite the notable decrease in planted area in the US, the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published last week revised 2017/18 world wheat production up by 1.24Mt from January.
This was mainly driven by increased production figures for Ukraine and Argentina. However, as the projections for total global use are also raised, world ending stocks are projected to be lower in 2018/19 than 2017/18.
Meanwhile, dry conditions in the US continue to dominate wheat markets. January 2018 set a new five-year soil moisture low during the month in Kansas.
The lack of rainfall has seen Chicago wheat futures make gains from last week, but the prospects of improved moisture conditions over the next six to 10 days have eased market fears somewhat.
Another story to surface over the week is that Indonesia is now expected to surpass Egypt as the world’s largest importer of wheat. The latest WASDE report estimates Indonesian wheat imports to increase by 1Mt to 12.5Mt, a 23% increase over 2016/17.
Oilseed rape
The French Ministry for Agriculture has cut its estimate for its projected oilseed rape area by 42,000ha to 1.50m ha during the week.
Meanwhile, Canadian canola (rapeseed) stocks for December 2017 were a record 14.1Mt (5.7% higher year on year), according to data released by Statistics Canada. This came as no surprise as Canadian canola production in 2017 reached record levels.
Soya beans
Soya beans hit the much sought after $10/bushel ($367.4/t) mark during the week. Concerns for the Argentine soya bean crop, due to prolonged hot and dry weather, continued to provide support for prices during much of last week.
However, rain arrived in the Pampas at the end of last week and applied downward pressure on soya bean futures. Despite this, prices have closed reasonably higher than last week.
Barley
France has again raised its estimates for expected winter barley planted area by 12,000ha to 1.37m ha. This brings the total rise in expected area to 37,000ha.
Europe
On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, grain and oilseed future prices were all up over the last week.
Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded a €3.30/t increase since last week to finish yesterday’s trade at €172/t.
Similarly, November 2018 maize prices have seen slight increases, up €1.30/t in the last week to finish at €166.50/t by close of business on Monday. Oilseed rape has also recorded a moderate increase with Paris prices up €6.50/t since last week to €354.50/t.
Chicago
Looking at the Chicago grain market (CME) across the water, maize and soya bean markets have all made gains over the week but the largest increases were seen in wheat.
2018 December futures now stand at $155.90/t and $192.60/t for maize and wheat, respectively, up $2.60 and $8.90 on last week. Soya bean futures have also made strong gains over the week with November futures up $5/t to $367.1/t.
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