Grain prices have weakened over the past few days as conflict in the Black Sea region abated somewhat and rain fell in parts of the world where drought had been of concern with regard to planting. So, for the moment, some of the perceived risk has been switched off, but has not gone away. And the removal of any element of risk brings a significant sell-off by investors and hence prices have fallen again.

As was the case in recent weeks, wheat has been the market driver and so it has suffered most in the past week. Spot wheat to the trade is now in the €212/t to €213/t bracket, with spot barley unchanged at €185/t to €187/t. But native grain is now tight and the overall market has more sellers than buyers. This is further pressuring the market.

Analysts still see a big world harvest in 2014 and this is suggesting to buyers that grain may yet be cheaper and so they hold off buying. This is only the inverse of farmers holding out for more when price looks to be rising.

New crop wheat for November is put at €200/t but it was a few euro lower earlier in the week. New crop barley is down too, with €184/t to €186/t being offered by the trade in recent days.

Some in the market consider €200/t as a fair price for new crop wheat for November. However, as the weeks progress, it seems increasingly likely that there will be increasing selling pressure as crops in countries like Britain, Denmark and France look promising.

Last Monday, Glanbia offered €157/t for green wheat for harvest and €143/t for green barley. Both these prices were back €4/t on the prices offered the previous Thursday. And on that day, Dairygold had offered €148/t for green barley and €160/t for green wheat for harvest.