Global grain prices eased back in the past week following the publication of official US figures, which had been absent from the market for a number of weeks due to the government shutdown there. And when they arrived, the figures were less favourable than had been anticipated, so prices weakened as a consequence.

Closer to home, markets have received mixed signals. The fact that a recent Egyptian wheat purchase bypassed Russian in favour of French and Ukrainian sources is taken as the slowing of exports from that Black Sea source.

This seems to be pointing to an increasing competitiveness for EU wheat over Russian and suggests the prospect of increasing exports from the EU. But numbers from the US are best described as negative on price.

Current estimates suggest that US winter wheat plantings are lower (down 4%), but Russian production estimates indicate the possibility of even bigger export potential from there.

Native prices carry a somewhat lower tone also and barley continues to head south. Nearby wheat is holding in the €215 to €218/t bracket, with €220/t occasionally workable for May. But barley is now south of €200/t as sellers attempt to move what had been static stock. New-crop prices have weakened also, with November wheat in the €188 to €190/t bracket and barley on €180/t at best.