Grain markets fell last week, as the dust settled from the response to the difficulties in getting maize and soya planted in the US. A major element of market response was driven by fund investment and this always seems to go too far and then have to come back. The question now is will this fall continue or will we see a period of flat or even another rise?

A US report early this week suggested that its maize acreage would be down, as would expected average yield. But the extent of the projected production decrease has not been sufficient to sound alarm bells on total global supply due to high yields coming from the South American maize crop and big output expectations for global wheat, which seems to be increasing.

So the market cannot be regarded as settled or headed specifically up or down. The impact of price on demand, plus the potential for weather to impact on global production, mean that markets are still uncertain.

It would seem that most of the price movement has been in futures markets and that native spot and forward prices remain broadly unchanged. However, imported price quotes are somewhat lower. Imported maize is back from €195/t last week to €189/t this week.

Spot native wheat remains around €200 to €202/t, with barley around €175/t. November prices are holding at €190/t for wheat and €175/t for barley.