The past week saw further gentle increases in futures and physical grain prices, both for old- and new-crop.

However, while nearby MATIF prices fell from the technical highs seen a week earlier, these price levels did not really reflect the market at the time.

So, while old-crop grain prices weakened last week, they have picked up again either side of the weekend, especially US maize.

This has influenced other markets, including physical markets, and given a slight increase in prices compared with a week earlier.

Native markets

For those who still have grain to sell, prices are that bit firmer again this week, on both the spot and new-crop markets.

Nearby wheat, for those who have it to sell, is now around the €250/t mark, with barley floating between €215 and €220/t depending on location and contract date.

November wheat is also stronger at €207 to €209/t and barley has moved up to around €195/t.

These price levels are being reflected in forward offers and might be considered by growers. The market still seems strong in terms of sentiment, but a good crop condition score globally at the start of spring growth could reverse this sentiment.

Drivers are still there

While nothing is certain or permanent in any market, there are still a series of price drivers out there. The USDA report earlier this week was largely neutral.

The report increased Australian wheat production, but also global wheat demand. It decreased maize production in Argentina and Brazil, but did not decrease US maize and soya bean stocks as much as the market had anticipated.

Some believe that US stock levels are lower than are currently being estimated and that this will still impact on the market going forward. Still, it is better that any such estimate be based on fact.

Despite its neutral sentiment, wheat and barley futures in Chicago still lifted on the news on the day, but might be weakening since then. One cannot but get the feeling that markets remain nervous for next harvest’s supply.

The AHDB report points to ongoing planting concerns in Brazil, regarding the pace of drilling of the safrinha maize crop.

It points out that at the end of the last week in February just under 32% of the crop had been planted, half the level at the same time last year.

Rain in the forecast there may help enthusiasm for planting, but it could also delay harvesting of the preceding soya bean crop. If the beans are not cut, the maize cannot be planted.