Market information has been predominantly bearish over the past few weeks. Recent FAO market information figures support the higher IGC estimates to strengthen this bearish sentiment. The US is set to have a big spring wheat crop according to USDA figures, up over 50% on last year (bad drought), but spring wheat is not a big crop overall.

The suspension of bioethanol production in two big UK plants has signalled the inevitability of exports from there. UK wheat exports are now very competitive, but the AHDB suggests that strong demand for feed will most likely limit the quantity to be exported.

The AHDB report suggests that current relative price levels will see both wheat and maize areas increase in the US next season, thus potentially adding to supply capability in 2019.

One of the few potentially bullish issues is the impact of drought in Australia. Production estimates from ABARES are down, but these are still higher than other estimates.

Native prices continue to be affected by slow or no demand, as big mills attempt to rebalance current stock levels. This lack of active trade makes prices difficult to assess, but nominal values indicate €215 to €218/t for spot wheat and €216 to €218 for barley.

November 2019 wheat is currently put at €192 to €193/t, with barley around €185/t. This week, Glanbia offered €167/t for green wheat for harvest and €160/t for barley.