Grain prices took a hit last week following news that was negative for price. World wheat production was revised upwards, demand was curtailed and currency impacted.

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecast global wheat and coarse grain production upwards by 9Mt, to 2,081Mt. Higher wheat forecasts in the EU and Russia accounted for the majority of this rise and the IGC now put global wheat at 729Mt, up 12Mt.

Meanwhile, Australian grain production continues to be forecast downwards, with ABARES putting winter wheat at 16.6Mt (13% down on September) and barley at 6.9Mt (17% down). Drought is a significant factor, but reports also suggest a significant area of crops being cut for hay.

Oilseed rape prices are being constrained by soya prices, but predictions that area is set to fall considerably for 2019, plus reduced canola production in Australia, may help support prices.

Native grain prices fell slightly last week on the back of the weakened sentiment and lower import prices. Spot wheat to the trade is back to around €215 to €218/t, depending on position, with barley around €216 to €218/t. Forward positions offer some carry, but these are nominal, as there is very little forward business.

November ’19 offers are back also, with wheat put around €192 to €193/t and barley at €185/t.