Wheat futures did not break the €300/t barrier last week, despite looking as though they might do.
Indeed, prices weakened a little on all markets since then and the December MATIF price closed last week at €287.75/t (still up on all previous weeks), with further declines on Monday when it closed at €283.75/t and then went back up to €286/t on Tuesday evening.
US markets followed the same pattern of movement on both wheat and maize. Following nearly a week of declines, the December positions for both markets picked up again on Tuesday.
Commentators suggest that further fund selling could impact this week as profits are secured following the recent increases.
This week’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report in the US had bigger output numbers for maize and soya beans, with higher ending stock estimates likely to show a bearish tone in markets over the coming weeks and months.
In contrast the wheat numbers continue to support that market.
Fears that high wheat prices could hit demand appear to be waning.
Recent tender offers suggest that demand is set to remain strong into the new calendar year.
Some importers may well have been holding off in the hope of prices weakening, but this has not happened.
The AHDB reports that Morocco has removed its import tax on wheat in a bid to replenish stocks.
With the November ’21 contract now removed from MATIF trading, the focus switches to next harvest.
Back in mid-June, the MATIF November ’22 price was €413/t; it was €490/t around mid-September; it closed on Tuesday night (9 November) at €572.25/t.
Native prices have not fallen alongside futures, with physical logistics remaining an issue for imports.
Changing market dynamics are having an impact though, with imported maize drifting back under €285/t. This is changing the attitude to barley inclusion levels in rations.
Nearby wheat is now around €295/t, but it had been up on €300 and could also be back around €290/t. Nearby barley is theoretically around €285-€290/t, but is now more difficult to sell at these prices. Overall sentiment will again be influenced by maize.
New-crop prices remain broadly similar at €240/t for wheat and €230/t for barley.