Fewer NI dairy farmers are thinking about expanding their enterprises than at any point in over 15 years, suggesting the period of rapid growth in milk output since 2009 is coming to an end.

Since 2009 NI milk production is up 43%, which equates to an additional 768m litres processed in 2021. However, record feed costs, difficulties in obtaining labour and high construction costs have combined to reduce the appetite for further expansion on farms.

In our long-running survey of NI dairy farmers conducted at the RUAS Winter Fair, we have always asked the same first question – what are your future intentions in dairying? In the responses in 2022 just 27% of farmers indicated they intend producing more milk. It is the lowest percentage of farmers thinking about expansion that we have ever recorded in our survey.

Just under two-thirds of farmers said they intend keeping output the same, while a further 4% said they will be producing less milk, and the same number said they intend to quit.

New entrants

However, while our figures suggest well over 100 NI farmers intend dropping out of the industry, there are still new entrants being taken on.

Estimates from processors are that close on 70 new startups have signed on this year, and while some have yet to produce milk, around half managed to get going this autumn.

Dale Farm is understood to account for around half of the new entrants, with Glanbia Cheese and Lakeland Dairies also keen to take on new recruits.

The vast majority are converting from sucklers and sheep, and starting with 70 to 120 cows.

In 2021, around 40 new entrants signed on with processors, down from just over 50 in 2020 and a similar number in 2019.

It is only just over a year ago that Dale Farm started to re-consider taking on new startups after it closed its new entrant scheme in 2020 following strong uptake of a scheme originally launched in 2018.

And it was only in the spring of 2022 that Lakeland Dairies announced a milk supply management scheme on “new milk” produced in peak months of April to June. As well as a 3p/l penalty on this “new milk”, no new entrants would be taken on in 2023, and would face an application process thereafter.

However, sentiment has quickly changed in the industry, and it was no surprise when Lakeland confirmed last Wednesday that the scheme has been dropped indefinitely.

In a statement the co-op confirmed that “it will continue to welcome new entrants to dairying on a continuing basis, north and south”.

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