The next six weeks will dictate our rugby season for provinces and country alike as we now hit peak traffic in terms of matches and their importance.

This weekend and next see the group stages of the European Cup competitions, followed quickly by the Six Nations which starts for us with a crucial away fixture in Paris. Get to the Stade de France healthy, win there and our spring really takes off.

We can get there with all four Irish provinces qualified for the knock-out stages of European competition and that will act as a huge fillip to the international set-up. It will also whet supporters appetites for the months ahead with the prospect of full houses in Ravenhill, Thomond Park, The Aviva and The Sportsgrounds. That’s what rude health looks like for Irish rugby and we’re on the cusp of it.

Ulster first out

The first mini-mountain to climb is Ulster’s. This Saturday they have an opportunity to take temporary control of their pool by beating front runners La Rochelle at home. The vociferous home crown will be needed because the French side must leave Belfast empty handed.

A victory here moves Ulster to top spot but the pool will go down to the wire. Ulster should end the day on a minimum of 17 points, possibly 18, but Wasps, currently third in the pool, will re-enter the equation when they in all likelihood take five points from winless Harlequins, putting them on 15.

It looks very much as if this will leave a climactic last set of fixtures where La Rochelle will surely take five points from Quins in France. That would put the French side on 20 points if they don’t mine anything from this weekend.

In that probable scenario Ulster’s task is clear, they need to win on Saturday and will need to beat Wasps away from home on the last day as a bonus point loss wouldn’t even see them finish second in the pool.

Getting to the last day of the group stages with everything to play will be an achievement in itself for Les Kiss and his squad, considering they were hammered 41-17 in the second round of fixtures away to La Rochelle and have only managed one bonus point in four outings. While that premise mightn’t sate supporters expectations, of the Irish sides they currently face the steepest climb to the quarter-finals.

The team have shown some form over the Christmas period, no doubt lifted by their come from behind win over Munster. That second half display is the template they need against La Rochelle, who have been one of the surprises this season, in Europe as well as France where they top the domestic league.

Ulster’s problems are mostly away from home. They were not switched on in the RDS at the weekend and paid the price. Some of their front liners, like Puitau and Stockdale, were guilty of porous tackle attempts which directly led to tries. That attitude won’t do in the European Cup where teams, like Leinster and on Saturday La Rochelle, punish such inadequacies.

Chastened no doubt from their Dublin no show, Ulster can rally and win at home. They must.

Leinster on form

The form team in Europe right now and probably the first to be guaranteed a knock-out place will be Leinster this Sunday when they welcome Glasgow to the RDS. The Scots, while perennial Pro-12 thorns in the Blues side, come to Ballsbridge winless and out of contention.

They will be beaten, a bonus point will be secured and Leinster will be fighting it out with Clermont for top seed status.

The bookies have come around to seeing what is happening with Leinster this season and they are now favourites to win the Champions Cup.

The turnaround in the capital has been remarkable in the last nine months. They have moved from a little short in certain areas to now having depth in every position. While Robbie Henshaw has been a key signing the rest of the revelations have suddenly appeared on the scene, most via the academy, and nearly all catching Joe Schmidt’s eye.

Jordan Larmour is just the latest back to propel himself into international reckoning. Throw him into a mix that includes Conway, Farrell and Stockdale from the autumn and the future looks green. If Leinster can get to April relatively healthy they are the team to beat.

Munster showing the right signs

Munster are of course one of the sides hoping to be there too and wouldn’t be averse to taking a shot at Leinster in the semi-final in the Aviva, revenge for Skibbereen and all that. But enough down the road gazing, Munster travel to the brand new U Arena in Paris this weekend and they too have a shot at boxing off a place in the last eight with victory here.

Racing are still in the hunt and that makes them dangerous. So too does the venue, where Racing have yet to taste defeat, including a 58-6 hammering of Clermont last weekend. They also include Donnacha Ryan on their squad and have a couple of former All-Blacks to call upon. Next season they will have Simon Zebo too. I have a hunch he could give the home supporters something to think about for next season.

Despite their derby losses over Christmas, Munster’s primary aim is as always the European grail. They’re showing the right signs and the Connacht win was the perfect tune-up. A bonus point loss still leaves them in control of their own destiny play-off wise.

It is the least they will leave with.This leaves us with Connacht and the Irish side with the most points in European competition to date this season. They rested Bunkee Aki and Ultan Dillane last weekend ahead of their trip to Worcester where they can wrap up a home quarter-final with a win.

Despite losing heavily to Munster in Thomond on Saturday the green jerseys, unlike their Ulster counterparts, showed plenty of spirit and ambition in defeat. They could yet make waves later in the spring. Don’t be surprised if they make some this Saturday too.

Three European weekends in a row with all four Irish sides winning? That equation would have been a pipe dream a year ago yet and after an hour of trying to check historic results for the last 10 years, I’m pretty sure it’s never been done before!

If Munster do a Munster on it in Paris, then history will be at hand. CL

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