Phil Hogan’s fate as European Commissioner hangs in the balance following a tumultuous week, as we go to press.

His presence at the Oireachtas Golf Society dinner in Clifden last Wednesday night, 19 August, has led to intense scrutiny of his movements on his time home in Ireland.

Following Dara Calleary’s swift resignation as Minister for Agriculture, attention turned to the Kilkenny man. An initial apology failed to close the matter, with a joint statement from Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste (and Hogan’s Fine Gael party leader) Leo Varadkar calling on Hogan to “consider his position”. That phrase is generally regarded as a call for a resignation.

However, the Irish Government does not have the power to dismiss or recall the Irish Commissioner. That power resides with the Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen. On Tuesday, Hogan handed her a 20-page account of his movements in Ireland. A spokesperson for von der Leyen said on Wednesday that she was “considering the matter”, described the document as detailed and transparent, but added that “we expect compliance” to quarantine rules.

Phil Hogan holds a pivotal role as Commissioner for Trade, for Ireland and for the European Union

Eamon Ryan, the Green Party leader, said on Wednesday morning that Hogan had breached COVID-19 restrictions in three different ways – by his attendance at the golf dinner, in his failure to observe a 14-day quarantine following his arrival from Belgium, a high-risk country, and by the nature of his movements into, out of, and within Kildare which has elevated COVID restrictions at present. Taoiseach Micheál Martin said Hogan’s “changing narrative” was a big challenge for the Government.

Phil Hogan holds a pivotal role as Commissioner for Trade, for Ireland and for the European Union. His elevation to the role came after a five-year term as Commissioner for Agriculture, largely regarded as successful.

Farmers would also remember that he pushed the concept that global food security should be considered side-by-side with climate change

His re-appointment as the Irish Commissioner was an indication of the level of rehabilitation of his reputation following a bruising period as Minister for the Environment, mostly remembered for the ill-fated introduction of water charges. Farmers would also remember that he pushed the concept that global food security should be considered side-by-side with climate change.

Senior position

The Commissioner for Trade role is seen as one of the most senior positions within the EU. It gives the Kilkenny man a central role in the negotiations between the EU and the British government over a post-Brexit trading relationship.

With Ireland poised to be the country most affected by British crash-out should those negotiations fail, having the Irish perspective so close to the process has been seen as crucial.

However, Hogan has now put that position in jeopardy. If he is removed, the Irish Government will nominate a replacement, but that person would have to be approved by the European Parliament.

Despite some heavy hitter names being touted as replacements, there is pessimism that Ireland will retain the crucial trade portfolio should Hogan ultimately go.