The anger expressed by Glanbia milk suppliers this week could be a dress rehearsal for looming CAP changes.

The suddenness of the Glanbia move has caught farmers completely off guard. In the same way, the majority of farmers have not yet realised the impact of forthcoming CAP changes.

And that is before the effects of this week’s Climate Action Bill are considered.

It’s like a meteorite coming from behind the sun towards us, but we are blinded from seeing it until it’s about to hit, or maybe narrowly pass by like other threats have before.

The removal of the Greening pot into a separate eco-scheme fund will cut all existing BPS payments by 20% to 30% (still to be decided). Full stop.

It’s a form of stealth convergence

Yes, every farmer can join the eco-scheme to get that payment – but because the eco-scheme is a flat-rate payment, many of those with higher entitlements will receive less back than they contributed to the eco-scheme pot.

It’s a form of stealth convergence. Those on higher payments will be required to put more in without being able to draw a similar amount out.

Factoring in budget cuts and even with the conservative 20% figure, the average entitlement will be cut from €260/ha to just over €200/ha.

The eco-scheme payment will likely fall somewhere between €50/ha and €80/ha but farmers will have to give to receive under the scheme.

All the while, convergence will continue to pull all entitlements closer to the average. There is still a push on at EU level for 100% flattening of payments. Even if this is avoided, a minimum figure of 85% is likely to be set.

Farmers with high entitlements will be in the firing line

Mandatory convergence of 85% would see the smallest entitlements rise to €150/ha. Funding that have to come from a cut to those on higher entitlements.

Convergence has already moved €100m between Irish farmers and some individuals have been hit for sums in excess of €10,000.

These same farmers will be asked to pay more, on top of taking a hit through eco-schemes.

The viability of some full-time beef and tillage farms will also be called into question

Farmers with high entitlements will be in the firing line and most exposed will be those farmers who used their high-value entitlements to fund converting from beef and tillage into dairy. They are the farmers who have debt to repay.

Any farmer who has invested in TAMS or land will see their repayment capacity slashed.

The viability of some full-time beef and tillage farms will also be called into question. And no-one is warning farmers how fundamental this change would be.

Or how likely it is to happen.