The best guess for milk price in 2015 is between 26 and 27c/litre, according to Irish Dairy Board (IDB) chief executive Kevin Lane.

Speaking at the Positive Farmers Conference in Tipperary on Wednesday, Lane said that the current Irish milk prices are not reflecting global commodity prices. While he had no doubt China would return to buying product, he said the extra supply was going to take time to wash through the system.

“2014 was a record year for the IDB, with some 41,000 tonnes of extra product traded through the IDB – that’s plus 16% on 2013. In the short-term, markets are difficult, but the medium and long-term prospects are good,” said Lane.

Dairy farmer and conference organiser Michael Murphy warned that the United States will turn on the milk tap as they become more competitive. He said: “US exports were 2% in 2002 and 15% in 2014. Also, US input costs are much lower than Irish input costs, so if you want to do high-input farming then the US is the place to go. A basket of farm inputs in Ireland will cost at least 50% more than the same basket of inputs in Missouri (US).”

New Zealand Dairy researcher John Roche said: “For the last decade, there has been 55% more milk produced from 25% more land under cows and 35% more cows. So there has been an enormous lift in revenue, milk per cow and intensification on average dairy farms, but costs have followed suit and for many the extra cows have delivered no extra profit.”