The Irish Farmers Journal annual land report published last week highlights one of the greatest problems facing young people getting into agriculture – the inflated price of farmland in NI.

Looking at the market in 2016, the most expensive land across the 32 counties of Ireland was in Co Down (£11,201), followed by Co Armagh (£11,179). Five NI counties were placed in the top 10 across the island, with Tyrone (in seventh place) coming in ahead of the likes of Meath, Kilkenny, Waterford and Cork. The cheapest land available in NI is in Fermanagh, but even here, prices are ahead of the average across Ireland, and significantly more than land prices in any of the western counties.

Of course, it is dangerous to make too many comparisons as prices depend on local factors such as land type, competition between neighbours, proximity to roads, etc. Also, exchange rates vary (in the analysis, sterling is converted at €1 = 85p), although if we use the average rate across 2016 of €1 = 81p, the NI counties would be even further out in front.

Comparing with Britain, the most recent averages published for 2016 put pasture land in England and Wales at an average of £7,146, and arable land at an average of £8,985/acre. Even arable land in some of the most fertile lands of southeast England is coming in at an average of £1,500/acre less than Co Down and Co Armagh.

Demand for land

With demand for land in NI remaining ahead of supply, it is hard to see the situation here changing in the short term, especially as wealthy investors from outside of farming continue to see land as a means of passing on their wealth to the next generation tax-free. One option could be to look at our inheritance tax regime, although changing that could have negative implications for everyone, including farmers.

But if direct support drops, and only efficient farmers can make profit, where land price will be in 10 years is anyone’s guess.