One of my New Year’s resolutions this year is to reward myself now and again for being good. With that in mind, when I decided to go dry for January, I also came up with a plan straight away for February. It involves making my way to the Stade de France this Saturday to witness Ireland and France in the Six Nations.

The prospect of a Grand Slam in London and all that comes with it on St Patrick’s Day appealed greatly, but I have no patience – the first weekend in February it is.

This game is also Ireland’s most important for some time. Unlike the autumn internationals, this game is about nothing else but the result. Looking too far ahead is a dangerous preoccupation of those involved with teams, but from the outside looking in, we can indulge ourselves.

Win this and the road to Twickenham opens up. With Scotland and Wales at home, this championship should be defined by our away games in Paris and London. The scheduling has been kind too because France are always vulnerable in their first outing, being notoriously slow starters and hampered by the strength of their league, which does not limit game time for the elite internationals.

By contrast, our lads just had a few days in Spain last week. Throw in the form of the Irish provincial squads and the strength in depth we appear to have developed in such a short time span and we are rightly warm-order favourites to win this opener.

There is more compelling recent evidence too. France’s last match saw them draw at home with Japan. A week before they were beaten by the Springboks at home, seven days after we had annihilated the same South African team 38-3. It looks like there has never been a better time to play them.

The flies in the ointment are their Gallic unpredictability and the fact that they have a new coach at the helm. Previous incumbent Guy Noves was sacked after the Japanese match, the first time France had ever fired a head coach before the end of his contract. His replacement is a man called Jacques Brunel, who, at 64, has been around the scene a long time, but surely he can’t turn around his nations fortunes overnight?

This is where the French can’t be trusted. This is what might bother Joe Schmidt because there is an element of the unknown around whatever team is picked to face us.

French flair

The head of the French Rugby Federation (probably the man who singlehandedly took the 2023 Rugby World Cup away from us), Bernard Laporte, inherited the now departed Noves. In appointing his own man Brunel, he was surely looking for someone who shared his beliefs about how rugby should be played.

Laporte is known to be vocal in calling for a return to French flair for the national side and that was always the style of rugby we struggled to cope with. Every team did.

Laporte coached France to three Six Nations champions and two of those were Grand Slams in the noughties. Under him, the French played off-the-cuff, imaginative rugby and were given licence to try to run the ball from anywhere. In other words, they were unstructured and such teams are dangerous, especially at home.

And definitely if they get change early from such tactics, because then the confidence flows, the crowd reacts and all of a sudden you have lightning in a bottle.

This was once the French mojo in Paris and why the likes of Ireland went 20 years without winning there. Good sides would get rolled over as the game simply went away from them.

So that’s what Joe Schmidt will be most wary of, the French going all French on us and the home fans responding in kind.

Irish leaders

In picking his team, he will need leaders who know how to control the flow of games. We’ll want structures, plenty of set pieces and the French deprived of space that could tempt them to be expansive.

We do not need to miss touches or tackles, or through indiscipline offer the French encouragement. Do that to a high standard and we’ll be in good shape.

Right now, Ireland are blessed in most departments, even allowing for injured absentees Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip and Garry Ringrose, who would all start if fully fit.

Certain starters this weekend are Sexton, Murray, Furlong, Earls, Henshaw, Stander, Best, Henderson, O’Mahony and more than likely Rob Kearney.

After that, Schmidt has decisions to make in the front row with Cian Healy in the frame to start. Devon Toner should join Henderson in the second row, although James Ryan or Ultan Dillane may come into the reckoning. In the back row, there is one spot available, probably at seven with Josh Van Der Flier or Jack Conan possible contenders.

Andrew Conway looked to have done enough in the autumn but then again so have Jacob Stockdale and in recent games the reborn Fergus McFadden, a favourite of Schmidt’s. With Earls too good to be ignored, there’s only one spot here and Stockdale’s recent defensive woes might cost him.

In the centre it should be a straight battle between Chris Farrell and Bundee Aki, the Munster man might just get the nod again because of the rock solid defense he offers in midfield beside teak tough Henshaw.

Of course, we have to pencil in the wild card that Joe Schmidt always seems to throw in to the big games. Fergus McFadden is my bet early in the week.

It’s some position for the coach to be in as there is still a couple of definite future internationals not in that mix but in his 36-man squad, namely Jordi Murphy, the Ryans in the pack (James and John), Rory Scannell and Jordan Larmour behind the scrum, soon-to-be-fit Joey Carberry and that’s just six that will probably not even wear a tracksuit on Saturday. This is why we should win. Because we are better. This is why we will win. CL

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