Minister for Foreign Affairs and Defence Simon Coveney has said he believes a Brexit deal can be salvaged this week.

Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal late on Tuesday evening, he said: “In a nutshell I think a deal can be done this week … the negotiations have been very difficult, but I still think a deal is more likely than not.”

He quickly hedged his bets, however, saying in the next sentence that “I won’t be shocked if this thing collapses, and that’s why we have to prepare for a no-deal and not assume that there will be agreement here.”

Keeping Irish product on UK shelves

Moving on to the issue of keeping Irish produce on British shelves, the minister explained: “There will be financial resources available to the Irish Government, from the EU in the Brexit adjustment funds that can provide financial support for a sector that would come under significant pressure if tariffs were to apply.”

It’s just going to be more expensive for British consumers, because of the tariff

Appearing careful not to intrude on the territory of his colleague, he pointed out that “Minister McConalogue, is a very important player here as his Department designs supports for the sector” but he did point out that “even if there isn’t a deal, we’re still going to see a lot of Irish product being sold into the UK. It’s just going to be more expensive for British consumers, because of the tariff, but because shelves have to be filled that trade is likely to continue in January and February.”

there’s going to be downward pressure on [farmgate] prices, particularly in beef

When it was pointed out to him that farmers would likely carry the cost, the minister said it was “unlikely that the UK food companies are going to sell product at a loss. But, undoubtedly, over time, if tariffs are part of the price for British consumers, there’s going to be downward pressure on [farmgate] prices, particularly in beef.”

He did accept the need for Government support but again deferred to his ministerial colleague to bring forward proposals on what shape that support might take. The importance of keeping market share in the UK was again emphasised by the minister, and he said that was his priority in relation to the Government providing supports.

If there is a deal

In the event of future UK trade policy undermining the value of the market for Irish exports, the minister said: “The UK won’t be able to sell products in the EU that have been sourced from other parts of the world that don’t comply with EU standards.” He went on to give an example of the UK deciding to import hormone-treated beef from the US and that they couldn’t sell any products that contained this meat in EU markets.

It was put to the minister that in spite of this, the presence of cheaper imported produce in the UK would devalue the market for Irish exports. He expressed the view that such a policy would also undermine the British industry and that he felt the UK government was a long way from a cheap food policy.

He was somewhat dismissive of UK trade deals, saying that all they had done so far was roll over EU deals

Faced with the difficult situation that lies ahead, deal or no deal, the minister reiterated the Government’s “obligation to protect farm incomes”. He referred to provision made in the budget for Brexit disruption and that Ireland would be at the top of the queue to access the €5bn EU Brexit fund to provide support.

He was somewhat dismissive of UK trade deals, saying that all they had done so far was roll over EU deals and even in the context of new negotiations, he was of the view that Ireland was well integrated in the UK supply chains and that wouldn’t disappear overnight.

When asked how radical the EU would be in protecting its beef market and would it extend to banning beef imports, he said he believed that wouldn’t happen, though he didn’t foresee Mercosur progressing anytime soon. The minister concluded by saying “everybody is very conscious within Government of the vulnerabilities of the beef sector in particular, in the context of Brexit,” and that “the Government will be there for vulnerable sectors.”