The economic consequences of the Government’s plan to deliver a reduction between 22% and 30% of emissions from agriculture was laid bare in the recent KPMG report which was commissioned by the Irish Farmers Journal.

KPMG calculated that a 30% reduction in emissions from agriculture can only be delivered by reducing the cattle herd. Applying this on a pro-rata basis between beef and dairy, it would equate to a 22% cut in beef cattle numbers and an 18% cut in dairy cattle numbers.

This would cut the margin on dairy farms by €17,500 on average, a 25% cut. On beef farms, where the average income is much lower, a 22% drop in cattle numbers would mean a €2,800 hit (31%) to margins on the average beef farm.

KPMG also modelled what a 21% target for emissions reduction in agriculture would mean. It calculated it would require a cut of 5% in the dairy herd and 6% in the beef herd

Across all farms, a 30% reduction in emissions would mean a €2.12bn hit on farm profits.

The wider economic impact was also calculated by KPMG at a loss of €1.68bn in the food processing and supply chain, meaning an overall cost of €3.8bn to the rural economy.

There would also be serious consequences for employment, with a loss of 15,400 jobs inside the farm gate and 41,000 in processing and wider supply chain.

KPMG also modelled what a 21% target for emissions reduction in agriculture would mean. It calculated it would require a cut of 5% in the dairy herd and 6% in the beef herd.

This would lead to a €4,300 or 7% drop in average margin on dairy farms and €1,200 or 13% loss on the average beef farm. Nationally this would add up to a cost of €1.1bn and a loss of 10,000 jobs, mainly in processing.

These cuts in cattle numbers are in addition to farmers delivering an 18% cut in emissions through adoption of on-farm mitigation measures.