In total, they are farming 137ha (338 acres 69% owned and 31% leased). Provisional financial analysis completed for 2012 (December estimated) shows this expanding dairy business just about broke even excluding subsidies despite technically good performance.

In 2012, the Walshs milked 270 cows, having gradually increased from 130 cows milked in 2008 using quota allocated to the Greenfield programme from the Department of Agriculture. The farm also carried 96, newborn to one-year-old, replacements and 110, one to two-year-old replacements.

Stocking the farm at 3.68 cows/hectare (270 cows on 74 grazing hectares) is a tall ask but the farm performed very well in 2012, despite the heavy summer rains (Figure 2). Almost 60% of the paddocks reached nearly 15 tonnes of grass grown in the year and they averaged a very good 14 tonnes of dry matter per hectare.

Production per cow was back to 336kg of milk solids per cow in 2012 from 356kg in 2011 but, in 2012, there were 90 first calvers in the herd which would significantly reduce production. Secondly, meal per cow was back from 350kg to 250kg fed per cow despite the heavy summer rains. Approximately 1.3 bales of round-baled silage were also fed per cow in 2012. The farm produced 1,236kg of milk solids per hectare, which is well up there in terms of performance.

Similar to the O’Donnell report last week, one of the major costs for the Walsh business is the associated costs with rearing replacement young stock.

While James had 110 bulling heifers last spring, he only bred 80 as the balance were not up to target weights. This was a costly lesson as each of the unbred heifers carried the same expense as the heifers which were up to target weight. These unbred heifers are still on the farm.

This year, James has 96 replacement heifers and based on performance observed and the winter diet (silage and 2kg of barley with 0.5kg soyabean meal per head), every heifer should reach target weight for bulling next spring.

After this rapid burst of expansion, James plans to milk similar cow numbers in 2013 (270 cows) but he will tighten up on the number of replacements reared.

In 2012, he AI bred for six weeks only and will do the same next year. With compact calving and good fertility, this will deliver enough replacements to maintain the herd at 270 cows milking.

What about the high stocking rate –— 3.7 cows/ha is a high bar? Can it consistently deliver or will costs exceed the potential profit?

A stocking rate of 3.7 cows/ha requires the farm to grow at 60kg per day for the main growing season. When I looked at James Walsh’s growth rates for 2012, he grew 66kg per day in early May and stayed up and above this level until 10 October. That’s over 60kg per day for five months of the year at a high growth rate where it is possible to sustain this stocking rate.

Not many farms can do it — the quick rule of thumb is that you should set your farm stocking rate around what the farm is growing for the four main grass growing months of May to August.

Setting the stocking rate high, however, will also mean you will need supplement on the shoulders.

James got away light in 2012. He fed approximately 110kg per cow in the spring and started feeding again in early October to bring total meal fed per cow up to 250kg per cow with the baled silage also fed in October.

discussion topic

Calving date is a discussion topic on the Walsh farm and James knows his farm has the capacity to supply more milk in February. For the last three years, he has supplied little or no milk in February. He can have grass for calved cows so why not produce milk from grass in February.

In 2012, he started breeding on 3 May, so in 2013 he should have a good percentage of the herd calved in February.

February milk supply should be possible on this farm and, in my opinion, is a lot easier than trying to produce milk in late autumn and you get the knock-on bonus of better quality replacements requiring less supplementary feed.

The calving rate in 2012 shows that there was one cow calved on 1 February, 53 on 17 February and 123 calved on 29 February. However, remember that the not-in-calf rate is very good for 2012. Results show that only 13 cows (5%) of the 270 milkers were not in calf at the end of the breeding season.

Labour is the other topic we have mentioned in previous reports on the Walsh farm. James is happy with the way things are going in terms of hiring short-term labour, depending on workload. All major farm machinery work is contracted out – fertilizer, slurry, silage, etc. He has a commitment for four months full-time work from a local farmer for next spring, so this will get him over the heavy workload period.

James’s father, Pat, does a lot of the road work and herding between the various out farms which helps a lot as this can be very time consuming.

James budgeted to have income of €430,859, excluding subsidies, in January 2012 and with accounts almost finalised, he is set to bring in approximately €428,800. Milk sales came to €383,500, excluding the November milk bonus, which may come yet and cull cows (not in calf) averaged €525 bringing him €24,500 this year.

Calf sales came to approximately €9,568 and James still has some replacements on hand that were not up to target weights in 2012 (inventory to be brought forward).

In terms of total costs, James budgeted in January to have total costs of approximately €391,947, leaving him €67,000 net income after paying €35,000 of drawings but costs are coming in close to €431,154 leaving him with little or no income over and above subsidies.

The AI technician and semen costs are coming in at around €16,600, which is slightly below target of €18,400.

Like most farms, ‘car and van expenses’ and ‘machinery running’ are both over budget with the white and green diesel bill over €11,200 (45%) of the total machine running bill for this farm. On top of this, the contractor bill came in at €54,600 mainly for fertilizer spreading, silage, slurry and reseeding.

One of the out farms (70 acres) was reseeded this year, which added considerably to this cost. Feed purchased came in at €77,500, which is above the €63,600 target and is almost 20% of total costs.

Included in this cost is €18,000 of milk replacer purchased in the spring but, as James explained, he didn’t want the same situation occurring where weanlings were not up to target weights, so he decided that every replacement calf born was going to get a head start in life from rearing right through the first grazing season.

It has definitely paid off in terms of stock quality this winter but, like every other farmer, James must carry the cost of this in the short term.

Next year, depending on price of milk powder and whole milk, James will consider feeding whole milk.

What will change in terms of expenses for next year? James will have interest and capital to pay on the main farm loan that was required for development — this will increase his bank repayment costs. He is also planning an underpass near the farmyard which could cost €40,000, plus VAT.

James and Sinead Walsh are farming near Carrick-on-Suir, Co Tipperary. They are just finishing year three of the Greenfield Dairy Programme.

They farm a 74ha milking block with 272 milking cows this year. There are four outside blocks — 1) 2.2ha, 2) 20ha, 3) 28 ha and 4) 12.5 ha).

This farm is one of the two commercial farms, just finishing year three, in the Greenfield Dairy Programme.

The objective of their involvement in the project is to learn the lessons of dairy farm expansion moving from 80 to 280 milking cows with significant on-farm investment, made with borrowed money, before quota brakes are released.

KEY POINTS