MPs have defied David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, by publishing the UK Government’s draft Brexit analytical paper. The paper shows potential damage to farm production along with increases in tariffs and non-tariff barriers for agriculture and food and drink.

MPs have long contested that the EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing should be shared with the public. Previously it had been available for MPs to view, by appointment, in a House of Commons reading room.

In a letter to the Committee chair, Hilary Benn, Mr Davis said the analysis “does not reflect policy” nor the deal “we are seeking to agree with the EU”. He added that full publication of the work gives … an unwarranted, implicit, formal status which could weaken our negotiating position and risks, giving a highly misleading impression to citizens, business and investors.”

Three scenarios

The paper’s models are based on three scenarios:

  • European Economic Area (EEA), as per Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein’s EU market agreement.
  • Free Trade Agreement (FTA), ie tariff-free.
  • World Trade Organisation (WTO), of which the UK would have to become an independent member, potentially giving the UK the same trading relationship with the EU as any other WTO member.
  • According to the paper, food and drink would decrease by anywhere from 2% to 9% depending on the scenario. Tariff rates would remain at 0% in the EEA model but would rise to an average of 26.1% with an FTA or WTO proxy. Non-tariff barriers, such as customs, borders and regulatory costs equate to an 8% tariff under EEA, 15% under FTA and 17% under WTO scenarios.

    Deeply alarmed

    Food and Drink Federation corporate affairs director Tim Rycroft said it was “deeply alarming to see the financial impact of any bad Brexit deal on UK food and drink set out in such stark terms. The findings show that food and drink would be worse off in every single scenario modelled – faring the worst under WTO terms.” He called on the Government to “redouble its efforts to secure a deep and comprehensive trade deal which protects our access to markets and provides regulatory stability”.