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Where this whole Brexit process goes next is really hard to call, but there is a thought process that the UK prime minister Boris Johnson could yet return to parliament before the end of October with a deal that might get support from MPs.
That is probably wishful thinking on the part of those fed up with the whole debacle, but any other options for Johnson look limited at present.
At the moment everything seems to point to him wanting to ditch the Irish backstop element of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement for some sort of NI-only solution.
In the Theresa May deal, all of the UK was to stay within an EU customs union, effectively limiting the UK ability to have an independent trade policy.
It’s hard to see how anything approaching that would ever be acceptable to NI Unionists, but also how anything much less would be acceptable to the EU
However, before that deal was struck, the original proposal made by the EU was that NI effectively stays in the EU customs union and single market, allowing trade to flow freely across the island. That would leave Britain to do its own thing, with any checks on goods done down the Irish Sea.
It’s hard to see how anything approaching that would ever be acceptable to NI Unionists, but also how anything much less would be acceptable to the EU, so perhaps the stalemate will continue.
However, if Johnson does pursue a new solution, renamed and rebranded as some sort of all-island zone for agri-food, there are dangers for farmers.
NI farmers would be locked into EU rules
The principle concern remains that our highest-value British market is undermined by cheap food imports, with the UK free to set its own tariffs and do its own trade deals outside of the EU. All farmers across Ireland would take a hit.
On top of that, NI farmers would be locked into EU rules, without the cushion of CAP direct payments, so reliant on the British Treasury for income support. Over the coming weeks the Theresa May deal might not look so bad after all.
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