Sheep

Sheep farmers have less reason to fear Brexit than any other sector. The EU is only 80% self-sufficient in sheepmeat. While the UK is our second largest sheepmeat export market after France, the 13,000t going to the UK is mostly offset by the 400,000 lambs imported into Ireland from the UK for slaughter. A hard Brexit would disadvantage British lamb exports to the rest of the EU. A quarter of the EU’s sheep are in the UK, and Irish exports could capitalise on any EU/UK trade restrictions. The processing sector faces the most danger. Processors say that imported lamb, which accounts for 10% of all slaughtered lamb, is necessary to maintain a critical mass of factory throughput. There is also the need to negotiate the fate of the preferential access that New Zealand and Australian lamb currently has into the EU.

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Tillage

Ireland does not grow enough domestic grain or protein crops to satisfy demand, and must import.

“The UK has been an ally of Ireland’s in insisting that scientific opinion is followed when making rules around pesticide use,” says Liam Dunne, the IFA’s grain chair. “In their absence, there is a fear that restrictions will increase”.

Big pesticide producers such as BASF operate the UK and Ireland as one market. That must change. UK-based science is frequently accepted for licensing of agri-chemicals. That may change.

A nightmare future where GM crops are grown in Northern Ireland but banned in the Republic, where glyphosate is restricted in the EU but freely available in the UK, where chemicals are smuggled across the border because of price variations, availability and oversight, is possible.

Beef

Brexit, in whatever shape it takes, will affect the beef sector, and not for the better. Half our beef goes into the UK. To put it in context, that’s 10% of all beef trade between the 28 member states.

Even before Brexit, there have been issues surrounding labelling, particularly the British beef Red Tractor logo. There is a significant price differential between UK and Irish beef.

The biggest danger is that the UK would complete a trade deal with a beef exporting nation, with the US, and especially Brazil and their Mercosur partners, posing the greatest threat. The DUP role in supporting the British Conservative minority government may help to open a window for an EU/UK trade outcome that will minimise the damage, but that is the best that can be hoped for at this point.

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Dairy

The rapid progress of hte Irish dairy sector post-quota would be threatened by a hard Brexit. Unless the UK and the EU agree a free-trade agreement post-Brexit, more than 1bn litres of Irish milk destined for the British cheese market will face steep tariffs.

Over 1.1bn billion litres (of Ireland’s 6.6bn litre output) is turned into cheddar cheese specific to the UK. Dairygold, Kerry, Glanbia and Carbery all manufacture cheddar for export to the UK.

Over 60% of our cheese is sold in the UK. The default WTO tariff of €1,671/t would apply to cheese, equivalent to a tarriff of 16c/l on our milk.

Today, 30% of the milk produced in Northern Ireland is processed in the Republic. Any change in this could have significant implications for processing capacity and cost.