Each week, we bring you stories on crop production around the world which are likely to affect international and domestic markets.

Downward revisions for Australian wheat, barley and oilseed production

The effects of the ongoing severe drought conditions in Australia continue to be felt. It is now expected that Australian winter wheat production in 2018/19 will fall to 16.6Mt.

According to the latest forecast by the Australian government agency, ABARES, this is 13% down on September’s forecast.

In addition to this, barley production is now forecast to reach just 6.9Mt, 17% down on the previous estimate. The AHDB reports that part of the decline in production is being attributed to the need to cut crops for hay.

In the same report, Australian canola production was revised downwards to 2.2Mt, a 20% fall from its previous estimate in September.

If this were the case, it would be 1.4Mt lower than production in 2017/18 and the smallest crop since 2009/10 (AHDB).

World wheat production upward revisions

In its October estimates which were published last week by the International Grains Council (IGC), world wheat and coarse grain production estimates were revised up by 9Mt to 2,081Mt.

While this revision may come as a surprise, it largely stems from an increase in wheat production forecasts in Russia and the EU, due in part to favourable planting conditions.

Total wheat production is forecast at 729Mt, a 12Mt rise from its September estimate.

US maize harvest moves over halfway point

In its Weekly Crop Progress Report last Monday, the USDA stated that the US maize harvest is at 63%, equal to the prior five-year average of 63%.

The soya bean harvest was 72% complete, above the trade’s expectation of 68%, and behind the 81% five-year average. Winter wheat planting is currently around 78% complete, below the 85% five-year average.

Bumper US soya bean harvest depresses market

The latest USDA estimates suggest that 2018/19 US soya bean ending stocks will reach 24.1Mt, the largest on record, by some 8.5Mt, the AHDB reports. This, combined with positive yield reports from the ongoing US harvest, continued to pressure US soya bean markets in recent weeks.

Future prices over the past week on the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris were mixed.

Rapeseed prices from Paris for November delivery were down €1.8/t since last week to €370.5/t. November 2018 maize prices recorded a €1.5/t increase over the previous week to finish at €168.5/t by the close of trade on Monday.

Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded no change from last week at €200.3/t.

Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME) soya beans, maize and wheat all recorded losses over the past seven days.

2018 December futures now stand at $144.3/t for maize, down $1.0/t and $308.5/t for November-delivered soya beans, down $7.3/t. US wheat prices also recorded a loss over the past week with prices for the December-delivered crop down $0.6/t to $185.9/t.

Read more

Dicamba damage in the US down 57%

Grain report: bioethanol plant closure hits wheat prices