Meat consumption across the EU could decline by 2.5% in 2020 a short-term outlook from the European Commission has predicted.

Overall levels of consumption could fall to 65.4kg per capita due to reduced consumer demand during lockdown and subdued domestic availability not compensated by imports, the report says.

All meats are expected to decrease bar pigmeat

On the production side, all meats are expected to decrease bar pigmeat (up 0.5%). Beef will fall 1.7%, poultry 2% and sheepmeat 1.5%.

This fall will be driven by the reduced slaughterings during lockdown as food service closed, production was constrained and logistics challenged.

The Commission has predicted a recovery in production levels for the second half of the year. It is noted that meat prices have started to pick up as consumer demand from certain cuts has recovered as lockdown restrictions are eased.

Dairy

For dairy, EU milk supplies are expected to increase by 0.7%, as increasing yields are offset by a decline in the bloc’s dairy herd. Cow slaughterings are set to accelerate in the coming months in response to recovering meat prices.

There is a positive outlook for dairy markets also, with declining trends in butter and SMP prices reversing as cheese prices remain stable.

Retail sales of dairy remain high, especially for products related to home cooking and baking, such as butter.

However, the report says these increases will not fully compensate the losses in food service for cheese and fresh dairy products.

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