So CAP is decided, and yet we are embarking on a conversation/negotiation about CAP that will visit every farmyard.

Minister McConalogue has the autonomy for Ireland that he wanted. When all the talking is over, it will fall to him to make big decisions by the end of the summer, unless we embark on some form of popular vote among farmers. But this isn’t Love Island or Strictly Come Dancing. Some very hard choices will have to be made.

The reality is that the restrictions/cuts that will be imposed on farming from the climate action bill will affect those farms with a lot of livestock. Dairy farms may have the wherewithall to cope, but drystock farms are operating on much lower margins, or even negative margins in years like 2019. The more intensive the drystock farm, the more pressure sectoral carbon targets is likely to impose.

If the INHFA and Sinn Féin manage to convince the minister and Government to opt for full flattening, those losses will be higher still

And these are generally the very farms that will lose the highest proportion of their income to CAP reform.

If the INHFA and Sinn Féin manage to convince the minister and Government to opt for full flattening, those losses will be higher still.

Casualties are inevitable, particularly for any farmer who has made investments and planned repayments based on a more moderate CAP outcome, as seemed likely only three years ago.

Ignore the rights and wrongs of CAP for a moment, because all sides are making decent cases in favour of their viewpoint.

When Matt Carthy or Colm O’Donnell say that historic reference periods from 20 years ago are a poor base for future payments, it’s hard to argue.

It’s important that the debate is respectful

When Tim Cullinan or Dermot Kelleher say that payments are income for drystock farmers, and that full-time drystock farmers may be even more economically vulnerable than part-time farmers with lower payments and incomes to this point, that also resonates.

It’s important that the debate is respectful.

We are all farmers at the end of the day. It’s also important to recognise that nobody is likely to get everything that they want. That compromise will be required.

Above all, CAP payments are only part of the equation.

Co-funding of Pillar II is a huge issue, the ringfencing of €1.5bn outside of and separate to CAP funds for an ambitious agri-environmental scheme is essential.

Targets

If all that is achieved, will it be enough to deliver a just transition to farming with the required improved environmental footprint? That all depends on the sectoral targets imposed on farming. They are coming soon. We don’t know whether the roof is safe until we know the strength of the winds of change.

Nothing is decided yet at all.