Prices for globally traded grains such as wheat and maize have been drifting lower in recent months, but that trend is set to turn, a leading grain market analyst has suggested.

Addressing the arable conference at Greenmount on Tuesday, David Eudall, an economics director at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), said we are currently near the base of the market, with prices for feed wheat in England around the £220/t mark.

He acknowledged that there are some bearish factors impacting globally, including a large Australian wheat crop, a large Brazilian second maize crop expected in the next couple of months and competitively priced Russian wheat.

In addition, there is a significant carryover of wheat in Britain, “with growers refusing to sell for less than £250/t” said Eudall.

But he believes bullish sentiment will outweigh these factors. He maintained that global grain stocks are tight, with the situation not helped by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Combined, it is leading to nervousness in the market.

“Prices will steadily move higher. However, a single weather event in spring would see a more aggressive spike up. Good yields in the US and EU need to be replicated in 2023. There have been two good years in a row – a third time lucky doesn’t often happen,” he said.

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