A busy agenda at the recent National Tillage Conference at the Lyrath Hotel, Kilkenny, looked at issues relating to Brexit, pesticide availability, technology development, current research, a grower’s opinion and the importance of integrated pest management in future farming practices.

This report focuses on deputy president of the National Farmers Union (NFU) in England Guy Smith who spoke of the potential impact of Brexit to UK farmers, Teagasc’s Steven Kildea who spoke of the changes taking place in relation to pesticide availability and Teagasc’s Fiona Thorne who explored potential impacts of Brexit to Irish tillage farmers.

UK farmers

There can hardly be a meeting at this time without reference to Brexit and the changing and evolving relationship involving the UK, Ireland and the EU. Deputy president of the National Farmers Union (NFU) in England Guy Smith spoke at the conference and said that they do not want to see a hard Brexit. He described this conclusion as being somewhere between devastating and catastrophic.

While this is the perceived economic consequence for farmers in the UK leaving the EU, when asked if farmers might vote differently in the event of another exit referendum, Guy commented that he doubted there would be a change in voting patterns and he could not rule out an even stronger vote to leave.

How people vote on this issue is nothing to do with economics or politics or even the future, it is really only related to a frame of mind which is much more difficult to change, he said.

Many farm outputs are likely to suffer badly, especially sheep and grain.

Guy commented that when the UK (and Ireland) joined the EEC in 1973, there was a phase-in process that took six years.

There also needs to be phased arrangements for exit, he said.

He pointed out that the UK operated very high food standards and this means high costs for producers and the sector.

On pesticides, he commented that the falling number of actives will give rise to bigger problems

This makes them less competitive against cheap imports.

Given that the UK imports 40% of its food needs, Guy suggested that the UK is likely to implement lower tariffs on food imports, but that such an arrangement would have to apply to all origins.

Guy stated that high food-production standards are better for the environment.

On pesticides, he commented that the falling number of actives will give rise to bigger problems.

This is now very much a political issue and he called on Ireland to be a key advocate for pesticide access.

Pesticide control must look at proportionality and risk, as there is nothing without risk and he concluded that we all have a part to play in this regard.

Higher prices

Looking at the possible impacts of Brexit for the Irish tillage sector, Fiona Thorne of Teagasc examined the specific implications for the tillage farmer subset involved in the national farm survey.

This was based on the 2017 results where the average income from mainly tillage farms was just 43% that of the average dairy income.

The tillage average was €37,158 and this was more than double that of the other major sectors.

However, Fiona urged caution, stating that 63% of this tillage income came from direct payments.

While this is smaller than for many other sectors, it does point to profit vulnerability given the current indicators for CAP reform.

If we end up with a no-deal Brexit, tariffs would automatically apply on the importation of grains from the UK.

While there is a much lower quota initially for a limited amount of imports into the EU, the higher levels which exceed €90/t would quickly apply to cereal imports.

Many tillage farms still have a second enterprise and the hit on these is likely to more than erode the benefit of any price increase

While UK wheat is currently competitive for imports here, this would quickly reverse in a no-deal scenario, leaving the next cheapest import source to be the price setter.

Fiona calculated that this could result in a 5% increase in native prices, which could equate to higher incomes for a cereal-only farmer.

However, many tillage farms still have a second enterprise and the hit on these is likely to more than erode the benefit of any price increase.

In the real world, the impact of cheaper imported maize is likely to undo much or all of the benefit of higher import prices for wheat and barley.

Fiona also pointed out the great concerns that would exist in the feed market if beef, sheep and even dairy were to lose a significant market chunk because of Brexit.

All in all, the overall impact would be negative, even before other unknowns such as straw value, currency, alternative trade arrangements, etc, are considered.

Losses and gains

No matter what specific challenges appear in the future, productivity will remain the key to profitability. Steven Kildea of Teagasc spoke about the huge changes that have been taking place with regard to the availability of fungicides, herbicides and insecticides in recent years.

While changes to regulations have been part of the reason for this, Steven also said that resistance development has also contributed to the erosion of options.

There are unquestionably more criteria involved in the assessment of existing and new actives and these are all impacting.

Many of these have been driven by the introduction of regulations 1107/2009 (SUD 20090/128/EC), as these changes introduced the concept of hazard potential and this has predominantly replaced the risk assessment which existed previously.

While very many actives have been removed from circulation, Steven said that we have not lost that many of direct relevance to us.

That is changing of course and IPU was among the most significant of the losses to date.

But these also include flusilazole, diquat, flurtamone, ioxynil and the neonics.

Then there are others like MCPA and a number of insecticides that remain approved but not for use on cereals.

It is increasingly important to minimise exposure and to use all other methods at one’s disposal to decrease dependence on pesticides

But there are many others whose future remains uncertain, either for regulation or political reasons.

These include actives like chlorothalonil, dimethoate, epoxiconazole, tebuconazole and even glyphosate.

Pesticide resistance also indirectly removes products from the market.

Steven said that fungicides have a limited life span and that frequency of use is equivalent to resistance build-up.

For this reason, it is increasingly important to minimise exposure and to use all other methods at one’s disposal to decrease dependence on pesticides.

While there is cause for concern Steven reminded us that there are a number of new products set to arrive on the market in the next year or two.

He mentioned five and there are others, but it remains a concern as to how long these will remain effective without adequate protection from more robust actives.

In brief

  • The UK’s dependence on imported food could well mean that it will operate a low import tariff on these goods post-Brexit.
  • A hard Brexit might help native grain prices, but the hit on our livestock sectors might more than erode any price benefit.
  • Farmers will need to use all methods at their disposal to help protect the efficacy of existing and new pesticides.