Ireland is expected to significantly fall short of its 2030 renewable energy target, according to information presented to Government ministers.

The country achieved its 2020 renewable energy goal of 16% in 2024. However, projections show that the country will fall well short of its 2030 target of 43%, across electricity, heating and transport.

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Officials in the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment are now examining possible measures to address the expected gap.

One option understood to be under consideration is participation in the EU Renewable Energy Financing Mechanism.

Through this system, Ireland could invest in renewable energy projects in other EU member states and receive a statistical share of the renewable energy generated. This allocation could then be counted towards Ireland’s own renewable energy targets.

Heat

At the same time, concerns have been raised about Ireland’s progress in reducing emissions from residential heating. Research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) indicates the country is significantly behind schedule in this area.

A recent ESRI review found that by the end of 2024, deep home retrofits had reached just 11.5% of the level required to meet end-of-decade targets. Heat pump installations were even further behind, achieving only 3.5% of the goal.

The study also questioned the reliability of emissions reductions estimated through the Building Energy Rating (BER) system. BER calculations are based on projected energy use rather than actual consumption, which may lead to inaccurate estimates of carbon savings.

The ESRI says additional policies may be required if Ireland is to meet its climate targets. Suggested measures include encouraging a shift away from oil and solid fuels, expanding targeted grant supports, and introducing technologies such as smart heating controls and thermal energy storage to better manage demand.