The agricultural operating surplus is estimated to increase by 33% to €3.9bn in 2024, according to new data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The CSO said this is due to the combined impact of higher output values, lower input costs, higher subsidy payments and other changes.

The value of agricultural output at basic prices is expected to rise by 4% in 2024, an increase of €430m to €11.7bn

Commenting on the release, CSO statistician Mairead Griffin said that the results are an early estimate of the value of agricultural outputs, inputs and income for 2024.

“[It] shows some recovery in agricultural incomes for 2024.

“While last year’s results were dominated by two outputs, namely milk and cereals, which both experienced large drops in their values, this year’s first estimates show some modest gains in output prices, increases in the value of subsidy payments and some lower input costs,” she said

Milk and livestock

Milk volumes in 2024 are projected to fall by 4%. However, prices are up by 7%, so the value of milk production will increase by €85m to €3.6bn.

Livestock values are expected to rise by almost 4% or an additional €164m to €4.7bn this year. The value of cattle is up 2%, pigs saw a 9% increase and the value of sheep rose by 16%.

Livestock prices are forecast to grow by an average of 3% in 2024. It is anticipated that sheep prices will be up by 16%, cattle prices will be 3% stronger, while the price of pigs will increase by 1%.

Crops

The value of crops is estimated to rise by 5% or some €137m to €2.6bn, according to the CSO.

The calculated value of cereals is up by 10%, a rise of €33m to €377m.

However, the CSO said it should be noted that while the value of barley and oats are estimated to grow, the value of wheat will fall due to a steep reduction in output volumes.

“The very unfavourable weather conditions at planting time resulted in sharp drops in the volume of winter cereals produced.

“The area planted with winter cereals fell by 20% and lower yields resulted in production contracting by 24%.

“As winter wheat accounts for most of the wheat grown in Ireland, wheat values are expected to be lower,” Griffin said.

Consumption costs

The CSO estimated that intermediate consumption costs will fall by 5% down €377m to €7.4bn in 2024.

This drop is primarily due to the cost of fertilisers contracting by 27%, a €223m drop, due to prices falling by 30% and the cost of feeding stuffs falling by 6%, a €143m drop, due to lower prices, down 13%.

The payment of net subsidies (subsidies less taxes on products plus other subsidies less taxes on production) is currently expected to increase by 13%, up €212m to €1.9bn.