The projected milk supply to ArraTipp will grow by 7.7% between 2025 and 2030, with cow numbers expected to grow by more than 7,000 head.

The figures are included in a survey of the ArraTipp supplier base, the results of which were outlined at a recent open day in north Tipperary.

The projected milk supply will increase by 54m litres in the 2025-2030 timeframe, and jump from 697m litres to 751m litres.

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These figures are based on an average output per cow of around 5,000 litres.

In terms of cow numbers, the survey found that cow numbers were likely to increase from 131,000 head to over 138,000 head.

The rate of positivity was highest among the younger and bigger farmers

Just shy of two-thirds (65%) of ArraTipp suppliers were positive about the future of milk production on their farms, with 30% unsure and 5% negative or very negative.

The rate of positivity was highest among the younger and bigger farmers. For example, 76% of those under 35 years of age were positive about dairying continuing on the farm.

Similarly, 89% of farmers with over 200 cows were positive about the future of dairying on their farm, but this figure fell to 52% for those with 50 cows or less.

The survey found that 80% of ArraTipp suppliers have no plans to exit milk production over the next 10 years.

However, the 20% who aim to exit the sector could take out 69m litres or 10% of the co-op’s current milk supply.

Age is the primary reason given by those suppliers who are considering leaving, followed by workload and the lack of a successor.

Meanwhile, land availability and uncertainty around environmental regulations were cited by respondents as the main factors which are likely to limit milk production growth over the coming five years.

Centenary Co-op

Staying with supplier surveys, a survey by Centenary Co-op in Thurles found that 85% expect dairying to continue on their farms for the next five years.

Three-quarters of Centenary suppliers said they had ample slurry storage for the next five years

However, just 21% of the 303 suppliers who responded said they intended to increase cow numbers, with 68% predicting no change and 12% unsure.

Three-quarters of Centenary suppliers said they had ample slurry storage for the next five years, but 17% admitted they hadn’t enough capacity, while a further 8% were unsure.

Interestingly, when asked if they would enter a farm partnership with a non-family member in order to stay in dairying, 77% of Centenary suppliers said no. A further 7% were unsure. Just 13% were willing to consider such an option.

Asked if they would consider robot milking in order to remain in dairying, 72% said no, 6% were unsure, while 14% said yes.

In relation to succession, 40% of Centenary suppliers said they had identified someone to take over the farm

There was a similar level of reluctance to adopt once-a-day milking in order to stay in dairying, with 70% saying they would not make such a move, while 6% were unsure. Just 18% were willing to consider the option.

In relation to succession, 40% of Centenary suppliers said they had identified someone to take over the farm, 38% had not, while 22% were unsure.

However, 12% of those who had identified a successor admitted that the candidate was under 10 years of age, while a further 27% said the possible successor was aged between 10 and 20.