Buoyant US calf prices look set to hold for another two or three years, Nuffield scholar and dairy farmer Paul Windemuller has predicted.

Prices for Holstein and Angus bull calves have rocketed in the US over the last year. They were generally averaging $600-700 per head (€500-600) in 2024 but are now making $1,200-1,500 per head (€1,000-1,300).

Windemuller said the surge in calf prices – which accelerated over the last six months – was driven primarily by the shortage of calves from the US beef herd.

ADVERTISEMENT

The US beef cow herd has dropped to around 28m head, the lowest reported numbers since 1961, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture.

The herd has dropped by 3.5m head since 2019, due to a combination of drought conditions across the western and central plains, poor profitability and retirements.

The tight calf supply situation has been exacerbated by the halting of imports from Mexico, Windemuller said.

The US banned cattle imports from Mexico earlier this year due to a spread of screw-worm in the country.

Windemuller said the shortage of calves from the beef herd has resulted in feedlots increasingly partnering with dairy farms to secure supplies.

“The consistency of supply suits the feed lots and they like to have a channel partner to work with,” explained Windemuller, who runs a 250-cow dairy herd in Michigan.

Calves are generally purchased by ‘calf growers’ at a week to 10 days old and held by these units for four to five months, before being sold onto feedlots.

Outlook

Although the recent announcement of increased Argentine beef imports by the Trump administration resulted in a slight easing in US beef prices, Windemuller said the outlook for the calf trade remained very positive.

Beef consumption and sales have held up despite prices doubling over the last two years, he pointed out, so that guarantees a ready outlet for calves.

In terms of calf numbers, he said the indications from both beef and dairy farmers was that more heifer calves were being retained for breeding.

“This will obviously reduce numbers and analysts are predicting another three years of high calf prices,” Windemuller said.