In the Midlands North West constituency, there are four clear leaders in the race for Europe among farmer voters, an Irish Farmers Jounal survey has revealed.

Nina Carberry, the jockey-come-politician, is out in front alongside Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen, with both on 17%. This would translate into a quota in the five-seat constituency if a similar level of support was gained on polling day.

Just behind are Carberry’s Fine Gael colleague Maria Walsh and Independent Ireland candidate Ciaran Mullooly on 16%. These four are well clear of the field and are poised to take seats if farmer support is an indication of the wider electorate’s voting intentions.

Next up is sitting MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, on 9%. Flanagan’s farmer support may be diluted by so many candidates with strong farming connections – Cowen is a former agriculture minister, Mullooly presented Ear to the Ground and had a regular column in this publication, but he is in good shape to retain his seat from this survey.

Fianna Fáil’s decision to run three candidates looks like it’s backfiring, certainly among this cohort of voters, with Lisa Chambers on 5%, and Niall Blaney close behind on 4%.

Their combined vote only puts them level with Flanagan, and with 23 candidates, slippage in transfers across this sprawling constituency is inevitable.

Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín is next, on 3%, which matches his party’s support in our parallel general election survey. Then come the two Sinn Féin candidates, sitting MEP Chris McManus and Michelle Gildernew on only 2% each.

Independent candidates Saoirse McHugh and Peter Casey are on the same mark, with a further five candidates on 1% each – the Green Party’s Pauline O’Reilly, Hermann Kelly of the Irish Freedom Party, Ireland First’s Margaret Maguire and Independent John Waters.

Ireland South

In Ireland South, Seán Kelly has the support of one in three farmers, and is sitting on two quotas at 33%.

Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher, like Kelly a sitting MEP, is on 20% and set for another five years in Brussels if this poll translates. The Clare pair are next up, with Independent Ireland’s Eddie Punch on 11% with Michael McNamara close behind on 9%.

The second Fianna Fáil candidate Cynthia Ní Mhurchú is on 7%, and like Fine Gael’s John Mullins, who is on 4%, will need excellent vote management and some generosity from her running mate if she is to gain a second seat for the party.

Sitting Independents 4 Change MEP Mick Wallace is in between this pair on 5%. Sinn Féin is polling badly among farmers in the South, with Kathleen Funchion on 3% and her running mate Paul Gavan only on 1%. Sitting Green MEP Grace O’Sullivan is on 2%, as is Ireland First’s Derek Blighe, with Aontú’s Patrick Murphy and the Irish Freedom Party’s Michael Leahy also on 1%.