Milk supplies in Ireland have reduced by 5-6% week-on-week in some drought-affected regions of the country, while EU production is also severely affected.

The week-on-week reduction in milk supply in severely drought-affected parts of Ireland is more than twice the normal rate of decline expected during mid-season and is replicated across most of Europe, where the drought impact has been even more severe.

Processors are already reporting seasonal declines in milk production that are steeper than normal, with week-on-week declines of 8-11% in some of the main EU dairy regions.

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In Belgium, some farmers have seen daily milk production drop by 25% in recent weeks.

Extreme heatwaves have also caused a notable decline in milk deliveries in France, particularly in the key dairy regions of Normandy and Brittany, with supplies reducing by 7-8% in early July, compared to the same period in 2025.

Continued decline forecast

Producer associations forecast a continued decline of 10-15% due to ongoing high temperatures.

The reductions in supply are further compounded by low milk prices and poor silage maize crop forecasts, which threaten feed availability and potentially forcing farmers to reduce herd sizes.

While early 2026 saw year-on-year milk production growth across Europe, the ongoing heatwave appears to have hit dairy farms harder in some EU countries.

French milk production had already contracted significantly in May 2026 due to delayed calvings linked to the aftereffects of bluetongue disease during 2025.

In Britain, the National Farmers Union has warned that some food products could be in short supply as drought has been declared across large parts of England and Wales.

Weekly milk collections are currently running 3.5% below 2025, according to AHDB.