Ireland’s electricity and transport sectors are likely to exceed their carbon budget allocations this year, according to new figures from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).

The latest data - covering energy use and related emissions up to mid-2025 - shows that while the residential sector is expected to stay within its target, the two largest energy sectors are set to fall short of emissions reduction goals.

SEAI director of research and policy insights Margie McCarthy said the findings highlight the need for stronger action as the first carbon budget period draws to a close.

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“Taking stock of what’s been achieved and where we’ve lagged at the end of this first carbon budget should be a decisive moment for both our economy and our climate,” she said.

Transport

Demand for road diesel in the first half of 2025 was 3.2% lower compared with the same period last year.

The record levels of biofuel blending at garage forecourts and a record number of electric vehicles on our roads have positively impacted transport sector emissions, despite questions around the authenticity of certain biofuels.

SEAI’s data shows that transport emissions in the first half of 2025 were 2.0% lower than the same period last year.

However, despite this welcome reduction, SEAI’s analysis indicates that Ireland exceeded its transport emission allocation for the first carbon budget earlier this year.

Since September 2025, Ireland’s transport sector has effectively been emitting against its future allocations in the second carbon budget, which is meant to cover the 2026-2030 period.

Electricity

Despite a 2.8% increase in electricity demand, SEAI’s data shows that Ireland’s electricity sector emissions in the first half of 2025 were largely unchanged from the same period last year.

Increased demand was largely met through greater use of imported electricity via international interconnectors.

SEAI’s best estimate is that Ireland’s electricity emissions allocation for the first carbon budget could be exceeded sometime in November 2025.

Renewable generation in the first half of 2025 has not increased significantly, compared with the same period last year.

Residential

This latest data shows that, barring an extended cold snap at the end of 2025, emissions from the residential sector are likely to remain within their sectoral ceiling in the first carbon budget.

Residential demand for both natural gas and heating kerosene was lower in the first half of 2025, compared with the same period last year, driven by a combination of warmer weather, higher energy prices and household retrofits.