Eliminating all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy by 2050 is not achievable, with the laws, carbon budgets and policies to achieve this objective are demonstrably, and inevitably, failing.

This is according to a scathing new report published this week by the Irish Academy of Engineering, which calls for an energy policy to be rebalanced to better meet the needs of consumers and energy security.

The report outlines that energy prices, energy security and long-term (25-year) planning of critical electricity infrastructure are being ignored.

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Rebalance

A new rebalanced policy approach is needed and consumers must be protected from increasing price levels in already high electricity bills, the report reads.

Consumers have been promised lower prices as renewables increase, but this is not happening. Cost-benefit analysis in advance of future RESS and ORESS1 schemes to determine, not only their effects on reducing emissions, but also their impacts on electricity prices is essential.

There is a limit to the amount of renewables Ireland should have and it is far lower than the current policy target of 54,000MW.

Imports already provide a significant alternative to renewables and more interconnectors are coming. The effectiveness of retail competition in energy markets should be critically and transparently assessed.

Masterplan

The report also calls for Eirgrid and ESB Networks to jointly be given both the authority and the accountability to deliver a masterplan.

It calls for unequivocal political and policy support to deliver the hundreds of kilometres of new high-voltage overhead transmission lines and the doubling in capacity of back-up generating plant that will be needed to enable the energy transition.

Energy security

The report details that national energy security has been all but lost because of the singular focus in policy on reducing GHG emissions.

“Whilst it is welcome that the need for an LNG [liquefied natural gas] facility has been recognised, a much larger capacity facility than is currently proposed is required to provide both the diversity and security of supply needed to guarantee that peak demand for natural gas can be met out to 2050 and beyond” the launch statement read.

Paradoxically, as peak demand for natural gas rises, overall consumption - and related GHG emissions - will fall as renewables and imports increase to meet a doubling in electricity demand from 6,000MW today to 12,000MW by 2050.

Fossil fuels will continue to be required as the power source of last resort to enable the electrification of transport and heating and to offset the intermittency of renewables.

“This dependency cannot be wished away. If the elimination of all energy-related GHG emissions by 2050 is not possible, emissions can still be significantly reduced”, it states.

Future

The report states that a rebalanced energy policy to better protect consumers and provide energy security will do more to reduce emissions and preserve economic welfare than the current failing policy approach.

“Future energy policy needs to be pragmatic and informed by a balanced consideration of inescapable engineering and economic realities,” it read.