Europe’s production of pigmeat is expected to decline in the coming decade, despite rising for the last two years.
That’s according to the European Commission’s EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-2035 report.
Pigmeat production increased in 2024 and 2025 through a recovery in the breeding sow herd in 2024, but European experts suggest that intensive pigmeat production systems are likely to face further societal criticism in the coming years.
They predict that EU pigmeat production will be further reduced by a combination of stricter animal welfare and environmental laws in certain EU countries, and declining export opportunities, particularly due to lower demand from China.
EU pigmeat production is projected to fall by 0.75% per year between now and 2035.
That’s the equivalent of 1.54m tonnes in 2035 compared to the 2023-2025 period.
They predict that pigmeat production will be cut back more strongly in western European countries - the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France – but expand in Spain.
Pigment consumption per capita is forecast to fall from 23.3kg/yr to 21.8kg/yr by 2035, despite being the cheapest meat available.
Several factors are suggested as reasons for a future decline in pigmeat demand.
“In the EU, environmental and societal concerns regarding pigmeat production could continue to reduce consumer appetite for pigmeat.
“Additionally, the relatively higher fat content of pigmeat compared with other meat types might be seen less favourably by some consumers,” the report authors note.
Pigment consumption per capita is forecast to fall from 23.3kg/yr to 21.8kg/yr by 2035, despite being the cheapest meat available.
Chinese demand
World demand for pigmeat imports is projected to remain stable at 10.5m tonnes between now and 2035.
Production capacities in China and Vietnam are expected to recover during this time, leading to lower import demand from some of the main EU export markets, despite the expected continuation of African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks.
In contrast, there could be increased demand for imports in some regions in Africa and Asia (eg Malaysia).
The European Commission reports suggests that over the next 10 years, the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pigmeat, replacing China, even though UK demand is expected to remain stable between now and 2035.
Lower Chinese pigmeat demand in the next decade could increase competition from the US, Canada and Brazil in other Asian markets.
The Bord Bia stand at SIAL China in May 2023, where several Irish companies participated.
It is expected that EU pigmeat prices could stay at around €2,000/t between now and 2035, at levels seen in the past, albeit still above Brazilian and Canadian producer prices.
After a decline in exports in 2025, EU pigmeat exports could decrease by 1% per year by 2035, a drop of 280,000t.
As a result, the EU’s share of global pigmeat exports could decline from 28.5% to 26%.
Europe’s production of pigmeat is expected to decline in the coming decade, despite rising for the last two years.
That’s according to the European Commission’s EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-2035 report.
Pigmeat production increased in 2024 and 2025 through a recovery in the breeding sow herd in 2024, but European experts suggest that intensive pigmeat production systems are likely to face further societal criticism in the coming years.
They predict that EU pigmeat production will be further reduced by a combination of stricter animal welfare and environmental laws in certain EU countries, and declining export opportunities, particularly due to lower demand from China.
EU pigmeat production is projected to fall by 0.75% per year between now and 2035.
That’s the equivalent of 1.54m tonnes in 2035 compared to the 2023-2025 period.
They predict that pigmeat production will be cut back more strongly in western European countries - the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France – but expand in Spain.
Pigment consumption per capita is forecast to fall from 23.3kg/yr to 21.8kg/yr by 2035, despite being the cheapest meat available.
Several factors are suggested as reasons for a future decline in pigmeat demand.
“In the EU, environmental and societal concerns regarding pigmeat production could continue to reduce consumer appetite for pigmeat.
“Additionally, the relatively higher fat content of pigmeat compared with other meat types might be seen less favourably by some consumers,” the report authors note.
Pigment consumption per capita is forecast to fall from 23.3kg/yr to 21.8kg/yr by 2035, despite being the cheapest meat available.
Chinese demand
World demand for pigmeat imports is projected to remain stable at 10.5m tonnes between now and 2035.
Production capacities in China and Vietnam are expected to recover during this time, leading to lower import demand from some of the main EU export markets, despite the expected continuation of African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks.
In contrast, there could be increased demand for imports in some regions in Africa and Asia (eg Malaysia).
The European Commission reports suggests that over the next 10 years, the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pigmeat, replacing China, even though UK demand is expected to remain stable between now and 2035.
Lower Chinese pigmeat demand in the next decade could increase competition from the US, Canada and Brazil in other Asian markets.
The Bord Bia stand at SIAL China in May 2023, where several Irish companies participated.
It is expected that EU pigmeat prices could stay at around €2,000/t between now and 2035, at levels seen in the past, albeit still above Brazilian and Canadian producer prices.
After a decline in exports in 2025, EU pigmeat exports could decrease by 1% per year by 2035, a drop of 280,000t.
As a result, the EU’s share of global pigmeat exports could decline from 28.5% to 26%.
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