Greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector are projected to reduce by up to 16% by 2030, according to a new report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

From 21.4Mt CO2 equivalent in 2018, total emissions from the agriculture sector are projected to be between 18.0Mt and 21.6Mt CO2 equivalent in 2030.

“Without full implementation of all planned policies and measures, there will be a net increase in emissions in this sector by 2030,” the report stated.

The level of reduction, the EPA said, will depend on the number of measures implemented from Climate Action Plans, AgClimatise and the Teagasc Marginal Abatement Climate Curve (MACC).

The EPA said it can no longer project agricultural emissions in relation to its sectoral emission ceiling (its 25% reduction target by 2030) due to the recent downward revision of farming’s emissions estimates.

The recalculation of the EPA’s greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture in recent weeks resulted in emissions being revised down by 7% for every year since 1994.

This was due to Ireland-specific data being made available in place of international default figures.

Some progress

Mary Frances Rochford, programme manager at the EPA, said the agricultural sector has made “some progress in reducing emissions”.

She added that this was done through the “successful rollout of actions on nitrogen fertilisers, low emission [slurry] spreading technologies and national liming programmes”.

“In parallel, in line with new research, the EPA refined the information underpinning the agricultural figures which has led to a reduction in the overall agriculture emission estimates.

“It is imperative that this new research and information is incorporated into updated carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings to ensure that they reflect latest science, data and knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and alignment with the national reduction target for the sector of 25%,” she added.

Overall

Overall, the EPA analysis shows that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 23% emissions reduction by 2030 on 2018 levels.

This is compared to the national target of 51% and down from the 29% reduction projected last year.

“This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51% in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies,” the report stated.

Transport, industry and the residential buildings sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21%, 12% and 22% respectively.

The first carbon budget and second carbon budget are projected to be exceeded, with almost all sectors on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.

The first carbon budget (2021-2025) of 295Mt CO2 equivalent is now projected to be exceeded by between 8Mt to 12Mt CO2 equivalent.

The second budget is now projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 77Mt to 114Mt CO2 equivalent, including carryover from the first carbon budget.

Ireland will not meet its EU effort sharing regulation target of 42% reduction by 2030; instead, a maximum reduction of 22% is projected.

Land use

The report said emissions from the land-use sector are projected to increase between 39% and 95% over the period of 2018 to 2030.

This is due to forestry reaching harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source, it added.

“Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase,” the report said.