Doubling down the focus of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on food production could prove a better policy solution to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from farming at a global level, according to new analysis completed by the research wing of the European Commission.

New modelling from the Joint Research Centre anticipated that a more production-orientated CAP would increase the greenhouse gas emissions of EU farms, but cut global emissions from agriculture.

The report stated that this global reduction in emissions would come about if CAP funds were directed towards production out to 2040 and greater supplies of more efficient European agri-food goods displaced food produced less efficiently elsewhere in the marketplace.

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The Joint Research Centre paper assessed three what-if scenarios that future CAPs could take and modelled the likely impact these pathways would have on farm incomes, agri-food output and emissions.

Production focus

Diverting CAP funds towards enhanced productivity would see consumer food prices reduced across the EU, the authors said, as they forecast a 1.2% decline for Irish consumers as being among the highest of any EU country under this scenario.

The model assumed that funding for eco schemes and agri-environmental schemes would be chopped down to half its current levels to boost the funds available for productivity-focused measures such as investment aid, sectoral-specific schemes and investment aid.

On emissions, a CAP that invested in production this way was anticipated to increase EU farm emissions by 0.5% – the equivalent to 2m tonnes of CO2 equivalents – but would slice 11m tonnes of CO2eq off global agriculture's emissions.

A production CAP scenario would best favour the EU’s largest farms and those with an output above €500,000/year in particular, but smaller farms would see “little or no increases” in production levels as a result of such a policy shift.

Environment focus

Another scenario examined the possible impact of gutting direct payment supports received through BISS by 80%, abolishing CRISS and ending investment aid to redirect CAP funds into stronger agri-environmental schemes.

The report claimed that this pathway would cut EU beef production by 10%, drop dairy output by 2.6% and see a contraction in cereal volumes of just over 2%.

This lowering of output was anticipated to increase prices marginally for consumers and lead to an increase in food imports, particularly with beef, but this import reliance was anticipated to occur “without causing major disruptions to EU self-sufficiency rates”, according to the report.

The authors stated that lower levels of production could see EU farm emissions fall by 1.7% or 6m tonnes of CO2eq, but that the displacement of EU food in international markets with less efficient food would increase global emissions by a larger 10m tonnes CO2eq.

They said that this indicates the potential for “profound emissions leakage” if the CAP pivoted towards a funding model that prioritised the EU’s domestic environmental goals to the extent used in the modelling.

Abolishing the CAP

The third scenario modelled in Joint Research Centre’s work looked at what would be expected if the CAP were abolished in its entirety and cross-compliance requirements dropped.

This scenario predicted “substantial emissions leakage” arising from a reduction in EU levels of productivity, as the 12.4m tonnes CO2eq in emissions avoided by farmers no longer producing in the EU would be filled with 20.6m tonnes worth of emissions from outside the EU.

Farms producing less than €50,000 in economic terms per year would see an average of one-fifth wiped off their income, with the smaller a farm is sized indicating the likelihood it would lose money, the researchers said.

Beef production would fall by over 13%, while Irish cereal output would collapse by one third.

EU dairy production would be expected to fall by 3%, but the report flagged a more pronounced 5.5% cut in Ireland’s dairy output.