Global beef production contracted by 2.5% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025, and is expected to decline by 2.2% across the whole year, RaboResearch has forecast.

But in contrast to Ireland, the major tightening in supplies has driven a significant lift in beef prices across much of the northern and southern hemispheres.

Brazilian beef prices were 9% higher in quarter one of 2026 compared to quarter four of 2025. In Uruguay, the US, and Europe prices rose by 4%, 2% and 2% respectively during the same time period, according to RaboResearch’s quarterly report for the second quarter of 2026.

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The fall-off in beef supplies globally is being driven by major reductions in Brazilian, US and Chinese beef output.

Beef production in Brazil is forecast to fall 4% this year, with output in the US and China falling by 3% and 2% respectively, the RaboResearch report stated.

Falling production was also a feature of the European beef sector, with output down 4% to the end of February. Ireland recorded the sharpest decline in beef output at 14%, Poland was down 8%, Germany was down 4% and France 2%.

In the US, beef imports were up 15% in the first quarter of 2026 in comparison to the same period in 2025. Continuing tight supplies saw finished bullock prices jump 16% between November and April, while lighter bullocks increased by 32-37%. Further price increases are expected as domestic beef production remains under pressure.

Declining

In contrast to the declining output in the Americas and Europe, slaughterhouse throughput in Australia reached record levels in quarter one of 2026, with 2.3m head processed. Exports for the first four months of the year were up 16% and topped 500,000t.

Worryingly for Irish beef producers and processors, a 36% surge in Australian exports to China this spring could result in the country’s 205,000t export quota to the Asian giant being exhausted by the end of the month.

This will force the Australians to pivot to other markets, such as the US and UK, the RaboResearch report suggested.

New Zealand is also set to buck the beef output trend in 2026. Although beef exports were back 5% through quarter one – due to stock retention as a result of good grass growth – output is still expected to grow by 3-4% compared to 2025.