A dramatic shift in farmers’ voting intentions has been revealed by the latest Irish Farmers Journal reader survey.

Both Government parties are at their lowest level of support in the 20 years the Irish Farmers Journal has been conducting such polls. Fine Gael is still the leading political party among farmers, but its support has dropped to 31%, down 6% since November 2024.

Fianna Fáil will be even more disappointed. Its support has dropped by 5% to 18% meaning a fall to third place in political support. Independent Ireland is the big mover, doubling its support to 20% since the last poll.

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Aontú has also surged, trebling support to 6%. Sinn Féin will be disappointed to be on 5%, having not benefited at all from the migration away from the government parties. In fact, since Independent Ireland’s emergence, Sinn Féin’s support among farmers has halved.

Minority

It all means that less than 50% of farmers are giving their support to either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.

This contrasts heavily with our first poll back in 2007, when the two traditional “farmers parties” had a combined 86% between them.

While the Government might point to the retention of the nitrates derogation and the opposition to the Mercosur trade deal right to the end as evidence of their commitment to agriculture, farmers are drifting away from both parties.

Independent Ireland was very vocal on Mercosur, hosting a massive rally in Athlone in January. It was also supportive of the fuel protests in April, and backed farmers calls for the removal of Larry Murrin as chair of Bord Bia. Sectorally, Fine Gael has the highest level of support from dairy farmers, at 40%.

This is a marked change from the traditional image of a larger cattle or tillage farmer being “blue”, and perhaps reflects the swing to dairy farming in terms of larger holdings and higher incomes. Independent Ireland’s high support comes from cattle farmers, perhaps in part due to the Larry Murrin saga. Sinn Féin is most strongly supported by sheep farmers.

In terms of regional support, Fine Gael is strongest in Leinster, while Fianna Fáil is strongest in Ulster and Munster. Sinn Féin is strongest in Ulster, with Independent Ireland best supported in Connacht. It is actually the most supported party in the western province on 28%, five points clear of Fine Gael. This may be down to the presence of TD Michael Fitzmaurice and MEP Ciaran Mullooly in Connacht.

Aontú support is pretty evenly spread around the country. Independent TDs captured a significant portion of the vote at 17%.