Ireland will lose around 41,000ha of commercial forestry by 2040 and close to 19 million cubic metres of sawlogs and pulpwood output, unless the current collapse in afforestation levels is addressed.

Such a sharp and sustained falloff in forestry activity would result in the loss of 3,800 jobs and cost the national exchequer €399m over the next 17 years.

These are the standout findings from a report commissioned by the Social Economic Environmental Forestry Association (SEEFA) and carried out by research consultant Henry Philips.

The report assessed the impact of forestry policy and forestry regulations on future commercial timber supply.

In addition, it examined the long-term sustainability of timber processing in Ireland, given the likely drop in timber supplies due to the reduced levels of afforestation.

The report found that there has been a shortfall of 52,000ha in forestry cover in the 13 years since 2010, due to the collapse in afforestation levels.

The report estimates that area of the national forest to be harvested between now and 2040 will be almost 250,000ha.

The area harvested annually is forecast to increase from the current levels of almost 11,000ha to a high of 17,000ha by 2032, before falling back to 12,500ha by 2040.

However, the area of spruce replanted on these clearfelled lands is projected to fall by almost 56,000ha by 2040.

When new plantings of spruce are included in the mix, the net reduction in the overall area of commercial softwoods is more than 41,000ha.

The report estimates that area of the national forest to be harvested between now and 2040 will be almost 250,000ha

In fact, the report finds that more than 7,000ha a year will have to be planted between now and 2040 to hold the current area of forestry under spruce.

Similarly, annual afforestation levels will have to be kept above 7,000ha to hold both current levels of employment and the supply of sawlogs and pulpwood.